Special fund: Does the financial package fail to Hubert Aiwanger?

The negotiating marathon with the Greens has been done, but for his huge financial package, the probably future Chancellor Friedrich Merz also needs a two -thirds majority in the Federal Council. In the new week, the eyes are therefore not only on the Bundestag (Tuesday), but above all on the country chamber on Friday – and there on Bavaria, which Merz may have to fail the decisive votes.

The six yes votes from Bavaria are in danger because the free voters have not yet wanted to agree to the package for defense, infrastructure and climate protection. Merz therefore puts subtle pressure on the Bavarian Prime Minister Markus Söder, who has negotiated the package for the probes from the CDU, CSU and SPD. “I am very confident that everyone involved knows their responsibility in Bavaria,” said Merz the “Bild am Sonntag”.

In the struggle for the positioning of the Bavarian state government, there should be a special meeting of the coalition committee of CSU and free voters on Monday. In order for Bavaria to agree in the Federal Council, the coalition there must be agreed. Otherwise there is only one abstention that would be a rejection.

Söder would either have to move the free voters to a yes or – at least theoretically that is possible – cancel his coalition. The SPD has already offered itself as an alternative coalition partner. “With the SPD, a clear JA in the Federal Council would guarantee the infrastructure and defense package,” said the Vice President of the Bavarian State Parliament, Markus Rinderspacher (SPD), the “Tagesspiegel”.

In the country chamber, 46 of the 69 votes are necessary to decide on the constitutional changes. State governments in which only CDU/CSU, SPD and Greens are involved come up with 41 votes. So it would be enough with Bavaria’s six votes.

It is open how state governments with the participation of FDP, left and BSW are decided. The FDP is involved in Saxony-Anhalt and Rhineland-Palatinate (four votes each), the BSW rules in Thuringia and Brandenburg (also four votes each). The left is part of the state governments in Bremen and Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania (three votes each).

According to the Union, SPD and Greens, the Basic Law is to be changed in several places to regulate three things: expenditure for defense, civil protection, intelligence services and cyber security should only fall under the debt brake up to a percentage of one percent of gross domestic product (GDP) – around 44 billion euros. Everything in addition can be paid from loans.

In addition, the countries should get more scope for their own debt: Together they should be able to take out loans of 0.35 percent of GDP in the future. Finally, a special fund for investments in infrastructure and climate neutrality is to be anchored in the Basic Law, which is to be exempted from the debt brake and is to be fed with 500 billion euros from loans.

According to information from the dpa news agency, the draft law provides that the words “climate neutrality” will be included in the new Article 143h of the Basic Law by 2045. Merz emphasized in the “Bild am Sonntag”: “I will certainly not be a greener. But a Chancellor who faces environmental responsibility.”

In addition, it is stated in the Basic Law that the investments from the special pot “for additional investments” are intended. “Additionality exists if an appropriate investment rate in the federal budget is reached in the respective financial year,” it says.

On Sunday, several Bundestag committees dealt with the draft. The mainly responsible budget committee recommended the Bundestag approval. “Today we cleared the way for future investments in the budget committee,” said the Housekeeper of the Greens, Sven-Christian Kindler, the dpa.