Finance: Suady position for Merz: Decision on billions of billions package

In the Bundestag, the expected future Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) deals with a lot on Tuesday: the old Bundestag, which is drummed up again, is to vote on the enormous debt package negotiated by the Union, the SPD and the Greens, with which billions of investments in infrastructure, climate protection and defense.

Several changes to the Basic Law are planned. The two -thirds majority required for this is not 100 % secure. For a future federal government of the Union and SPD with a Chancellor Merz, it is central to going through the plans. Both sides see them as necessary in order to remain financially and politically capable of acting in economically and security policy. The formation of a new black and red coalition is still intensively negotiated in working groups in parallel.

The legislative package deals with a loosening of the debt brake in the Basic Law, which simply stipulates that the federal and state governments have to make do without additional loans with the money. Because of the weakening economy and the international situation – keyword Ukraine – exceptions should now be created here: for defense spending, civil protection, intelligence services and cyber security, unlimited loans should be possible, and for additional investments in the infrastructure (UA rails, bridges, streets), a 500 -millions of special pot (“special wealth”) is set up, fed with loans becomes.

Climate neutrality 2045 in the Basic Law

The Greens, whose consent is necessary for the required two -thirds majority, had negotiated that the funds can also be used for additional investments to achieve climate neutrality by 2045. In the Basic Law, Article 143h, it should be in the future. Climate neutrality means that no more greenhouse gases are expelled and can be bound again.

It is critically discussed whether the explicit statement of 2045 in the Basic Law can be understood how a new state goal can be understood with negative consequences for the economy and new claims for environmental protection organizations. Merz had rejected this in the ARD: the goal in 2045 has already been internationally agreed and stated in the German Climate Protection Act, the Federal Constitutional Court also obliged politics to do so. It is a purpose for the special fund and not a new state goal.

Crime thriller by two -thirds majority

It should be a voting thriller in the Bundestag. The old parliament that comes together has 733 MPs. 489 yes votes need it for a two-thirds majority. Union (196), SPD (207) and Greens (117) together have 520, i.e. 31 more than necessary – the available figures were transmitted by the Bundestag administration.

Merz had also spoken of 31 votes and said that there was a certain buffer for illness. However, this majority is not comfortable. There are deviators who had previously made it clear that they would not agree or not be present. Merz spoke on Monday of two or three Union members who did not want to agree.

According to information from participant circles, there was an abstention and a undecided person in the Green Group on a trial coordination on the same day. SPD parliamentary group leader Lars Klinbeil said on Monday that the status is that the 207 SPD MPs are missing from a disease due to illness and that there will be a no voice.

Vote in the Bundestag

Many MPs are no longer there in the new Bundestag, which will come together for the first time in the coming week. It is her last vote. It cannot be ruled out that some of them do not vote as usual along the parliamentary group line. It is coordinated by name. This means that for every MP it is later understandable how he coordinated.

On Monday, further attempts had failed in Karlsruhe to stop the Bundestag’s decision on Tuesday. The Federal Constitutional Court rejected several urgent requests against the planned vote. Among them were applications from AfD, left, FDP and the BSW. The court had already rejected several applications against the special meetings of the old Bundestag on Friday. They are unfounded.

Next stage Federal Council

Even if the Bundestag agrees, the matter is not yet through. Changes in the Basic Law also need a clear approval of the federal states: a two -thirds majority is also required in the Federal Council, which decides on Friday. 46 of the 69 votes in the Federal Council would be necessary. State governments in which only the CDU, SPD and the Greens are involved in 41 votes.

Together with the six voices from Bavaria, the two -thirds majority would be given. In the evening, State Chancellor Florian Herrmann (CSU) said at a joint statement with freelance voter parliamentary group leader Florian Streibl in Munich that Bavaria would agree. CSU and Freie voters had agreed on this in a meeting of the coalition committee – although the free voters had previously expressed massive reservations.