Use upstream in Europe: Ready for war? EU plans for the worst-case scenario

According to the European Commission, the EU must immediately prepare for the real possibility of a large -scale war with Russia. “History will not forgive us inactivity,” warns the authority under the direction of Ursula von der Leyen in a new strategy paper on the future of European defense. Should Russia achieve its destinations in Ukraine, the country will also expand its territorial ambitions. The year 2030 is mentioned as a possible period of time.

The background to the new strategy is in particular the announcements by US President Donald Trump, according to which the atomic superpower USA will no longer be available unconditionally than a guarantee of peace in Europe in the future. “The security architecture that we rely on can no longer be considered for granted,” said von der Leyen about the presentation of the so -called white book. You now have to strengthen your own skills and invest in defense.

Seven key areas

In order to effectively deter Russia and other aggressive actors, from the EU Commission’s point of view, it is now necessary to close existing military gaps in seven key areas as soon as possible. According to the new strategy paper, these include air defense and missile defense, but also artillery systems, drones and military transport capacities. According to the Commission, the EU countries should cooperate closely when buying and order at least 40 percent of the required goods together.

“Common procurement is the most efficient means of procuring large quantities of” consumer goods “such as ammunition, rockets and drones. But joint procurement is also crucial for the implementation of more complex projects,” says the white book. This is, for example, because the bundling of demand reduce the costs, send clear demand signals to the armaments industry and enable the smooth cooperation between national armed forces.

In order to finance upgrade, the commission published two weeks ago are provided for EU loans of 150 billion euros and exceptions to the strict EU debt rules. A total of 800 billion euros are to be mobilized over the next four years. The EU Commission also wants to loosen requirements and regulations for the armaments industry. The plans should also make it possible to support the Ukraine attacked by Russia even more militarily in the future.

In the strategy, the strategy is warned much less clearly than initially intended by the EU foreign commissioner Kaja Kallas and EU defense commissioner Andrius Kubilius. Corresponding explicit passages from an older text design did not make it into the final version after the intervention of Ursula von der Leyen’s cabinet.

There is criticism from the European Parliament. “A white paper on European defense only makes sense if it recognizes reality-and this includes an honest re-evaluation of transatlantic relations,” said German Green MP Hannah Neumann. This shows that one can no longer rely on the United States, but is almost completely dependent on them at central skills.

If billions of bills are now invested, they would have to flow specifically into building their own capacities – from air defense to cyber to military education. The seven strategic investment areas for this are a good step.

Clear warnings were deleted

In the earlier draft for the white book, it had specifically said about dependencies on the United States that the United States could possibly restrict or even prevent the use of key components for military use. The only way to overcome dependencies is therefore to develop the necessary skills through common European armaments projects.

The background to the formulations was obviously the latest experiences of the Ukraine attacked by Russia. The country had had to experience how the government of Trump was able to restrict the use of US weapon systems from afar after it had refused to comply with demands on possible peace talks with Russia and a raw material deal.

It is now afraid that the USA, in the event of disagreements or conflicts, could also paralyze weapon systems delivered to NATO partners from a distance. This is particularly true of high-tech products such as Lockheed Martin F-35a Lightning II. Germany had only ordered 35 pieces three years ago. At the same time, however, there is also concern that the United States could withdraw militarily completely from Europe if US arms companies will receive less orders from the EU in the future.