Groko: government until Easter? Can “completely forget”

It hooks in the GroKo in the foundation. And now that the hot phase of negotiations is to start this week. Optimistically formulated, it could be said that the will to argue at the top of the future coalition is not yet fully reflected in the results of the working groups. The more pessimistic perspective: you are putting yourself in all rounds.

“Tough”, “hooked”, “frustrating” the conversations were, the FAZ quotes negotiators on the Union side. The opposite side apparently sees it similarly: “They read their whole election program and seriously expect that we are now implementing it 1: 1,” complains an SPD negotiator to the star.

At the latest on Monday, all working groups must present their results of the 19-member negotiation group. Open points then have to clarify the round around the party leader Friedrich Merz (CDU), Lars Klingbeil and Saskia Esken (both SPD) and CSU boss Markus Söder.

Not an easy task, because it is reportedly that the controversial passages – characterized by square brackets or marked in the colors red and blue – are sometimes longer than the united text sections. Sometimes the results even fall behind the compromises already found during the explorations, according to negotiation circles.

One thing is certain: Merz can “completely forget” that one has been through government formation until Easter. On the contrary: from now on it will be extremely tough.

The future chancellor is under pressure from several sides. A large part of their own people suffers from the 180-degree turn in Merz’s debt policy. The last billions of packages adopted can primarily be seen as a morning gift to the comrades, which is why CDU/CSU are now on the train. Real reforms are considered to be revenge, and there is talk of “CDU-PUR”. The coalition agreement must be clearly noted that the Union had won the election – not the SPD.

The comrades naturally see it completely differently. The fact that the Union is guilty for the billions of packages is considered absurd. After all, all the tanks and bridges that could be built with the money would not be social democratic tanks and bridges.

Party leader Klingbeil is under pressure. Again and again his party warns him to remain hard with the citizens’ allowance, neither rejections nor pension cuts and enforce a 15-euro minimum wage-otherwise the approval of the base may shake the coalition agreement. In the Union, this argument is considered propaganda, Merz reminds of every opportunity that ultimately both sides are condemned to success if they want to prevent the AfD from becoming even stronger.

Merz himself has to be harvested in particular on two policy areas: in the event of immigration, i.e. the limitation of illegal migration, and when it comes to economic transition. Here Merz raised high expectations. There is not much left of his 5-point plan for migration, crumbling the Chancellor in Spe even before taking office, also crumbling the plans for his tax reforms?

For real tax cuts, the new coalition is probably missing the necessary money for the foreseeable future. Sounds absurd, but it is logical: There are no household holes with loans from the billions of packages, they are only reserved for investments in defense and infrastructure.

Markus Söder may see it differently, but this does not apply to the demands from the CSU wish catalog: it contains with the expansion of the mother’s pension, the increase in the commuter flat rate, the lowering of the VAT in the catering and the full return of the agrardiesel subvents, which post four billion dollar-difficult ones, which the already existing deficit in the home would deepen.

The Merz confidante and parliamentary managing director of the Union faction, Thorsten Frei, recalled this week as a precaution: “In any case, it remains that the pressure to consolidate will remain great,” said Frei in the of “Politico”. “We expect a cover gap of around 38 billion euros in the coming year, in the two subsequent years of 31 billion euros” – larger tax reforms with relief and investment incentives for industry and medium -sized companies.

No wonder that there was now the greatest trouble in the “Household, Finance and Taxes” working group. Once the negotiations were even canceled. According to the FAZ, the SPD proposal was the reason to abolish the spouse splitting. A violent word battle between the Rhineland-Palatinate finance minister Doris Ahnen and the CSU budget expert Mechthilde Wittmann led to the seven SPD negotiators left the room closed.

Before that it was already high. The SPD has had the Union high with its extensive tax plans. Planned relief would have to be “at least” designed “at least”, says: The Union would have to make suggestions for higher taxes elsewhere. The SPD would have some: the old wealth tax, a new financial transaction tax or the increase in the top tax rate to 47 percent.

In the end, there is neither a reform of income tax nor a new regulation on corporate taxation in the working group paper.

“Frustrating to the Mark”, the talks were such a negotiator of the Union in the FAZ. Among comrades, the sentence always falls: “Boris was absolutely right,” says an SPD negotiator. What is meant by Pistorius had complained about the explorations with the words: “These interlocutors were by far the most uncomfortable.”

It is likely to be very long negotiations.