Change of government: Steinmeier releases Scholz: What does that mean?

1203 days and a few hours: This is how long will Olaf Scholz be Chancellor if he gets his debit certificate together with his 14 remaining ministers in Bellevue Castle in the early evening with his 14 remaining ministers. However, this does not end for the government, which started in 2021 as a “progress coalition”. The Scholz team still has to keep the position for a few weeks.

Why is the government released now?

Because Article 69 of the Basic Law prescribes this: “The office of Chancellor or a Federal Minister ends in any case with the meeting of a new Bundestag,” it says. The new Bundestag meets on Tuesday at 11:00 a.m. – exactly 30 days after the election. That is why Scholz and his ministers will receive their discharge certificates in Bellevue Castle right after the meeting, the end of which is planned for 4 p.m.

Is Germany then without a government?

No. Steinmeier will ask Scholz and his ministers to continue the official business until a new government was appointed. According to Article 69 of the Basic Law, the government is obliged to do so. But then it is only in office.

Since the election 30 days ago, the Scholz government has no far -reaching decisions, without coordinating with the Union as the strongest power in the government in the future. In practice, the handing over of the discharge certificates does not change much. With the constitution of the new parliament, the government loses another piece of legitimation.

What else can Scholz do now?

He will continue to make appointments as a chancellor. But only the most necessary. On Thursday, for example, he will fly to Paris for the Ukraine summit, but not without consulting Friedrich Merz beforehand without his probable successor.

How long does this state of suspension continue to last?

That cannot be said exactly. If everything runs smoothly, Merz and his cabinet could receive their appointment certificates in Bellevue Castle before Easter. For this, negotiations on a coalition agreement between the Union and the SPD would have to be concluded in the next week. This is possible, but ambitious. If it does not work, the government should only be at the end of April or early May. Mission to believe that the negotiations fail.

Who certainly no longer belongs to the new government?

Above all Olaf Scholz. He said before the election that he was not available for a Chancellor Merz’s cabinet. He has nothing to do with the coalition negotiations. However, he wants to perceive his direct mandate won in Potsdam and remain for the entire parliamentary term in the Bundestag.

What will become of the outgoing ministers?

All five Minister of the Greens and Minister of Transport Volker Wissing, who returned with the FDP’s coalition break, and remained in the government. Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock wants to become President of the UN General Assembly from September. Cem Özdemir, agricultural and finally also Minister of Education, changes to state politics. His new big goal: to become Prime Minister in Stuttgart. Vice -Chancellor and Minister of Economics Robert Habeck is elected to the Bundestag, but now wants to do without a leading role in his party. At Wissing, he is expected to work again as a lawyer after leaving politics.

Who could continue to belong to a new government?

For posts in the new cabinet, all eight previous SPD ministers are eligible. None and none of them have so far explained a voluntary waiver. However, the SPD will receive a maximum of six ministerial posts in the new government. And it can be assumed that there will be newcomers. So only a part of the previous ministers will find themselves in a cabinet.

Who has the best chances?

According to all surveys, Germany’s most popular politician, Minister of Defense Boris Pistorius, has great chances of keeping his post. It becomes more difficult for Interior Minister Nancy Faeser: It is likely that her ministry will go to the Union in the coalition negotiations. For example, she could become Minister of Justice. The also popular Minister of Labor Hubertus Heil has the problem that, like Pistorius and the possible future Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil from Lower Saxony. The proportion always plays a major role in the distribution of posts.

For Chancellor Minister Wolfgang Schmidt there should hardly be any space in the new government. Finance Minister Jörg Kukies may have to give way to party leader Lars Klingbeil if he reaches for a cabinet post. The future of Karl Lauterbach (Health), Klara Geywitz (building and living) and Svenja Schulze (development) is open.