Greenland: This is how Donald Trump could incorporate the island

Greenland remains one of the hottest geopolitical locations in the world. It does not pass a week without US President Donald Trump renews his area claim for the huge ice island. “We need it. We have to have it,” said Trump in an interview with the er Vince Coglianese in an interview at the beginning of this week. This Friday Vice President JD Vance will underpin this claim with a visit. Trump’s deputy travels to Greenland together with his wife Usha and high -ranking government officials.

The situation around the huge ice island in the Arctic is tricky. Donald Trump wants to buy Greenland, Denmark wants to keep Greenland and many Grönlander himself want independence. “We want to build our country ourselves,” said the designated next Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen in the middle of the month after the parliamentary election on the largest island in the world. “People want a change. We want more economy to finance our prosperity.”

Nielsen’s Democratic Party (Democrats) stands for an economic liberal course. With almost 30 percent of the votes, however, the election victory is not enough for a sole government, a coalition partner is needed. However, Nielsen has even chosen three partners, so that four of the five parties represented in the parliament will be part of the future government, as local media report. Greenland thus forms a government of national unity against the interests of abroad.

Only the populist Naleraq party is not there. It pleads most for the complete detachment from Denmark. Nielsen, on the other hand, is not available for rushed action. “We don’t want independence tomorrow, we want a good basis,” said the top candidate of the Democratic Party after his election victory.

As little as the islanders want to join the United States, they also want to get the status quo. The majority of the approximately 56,000 people in Greenland want to become more independent from Denmark, 3500 kilometers away. Klaus-Peter Saalbach does not believe that something changes quickly in the political status of Greenland, the security and geopolitics expert in the NTV podcast “explained something again”.

In the long term, Saalbach, professor at the University of Osnabrück, considers Greenland independence to be likely. “Denmark no longer has the legend in Greenland. Since 2009, Greenland has had the last word by a small change in autonomy statement and could declare itself independently against the will of Denmark.”

However, the change in autonomy statute also means that Greenland can no longer be sold. In contrast to the plan of US President Trump, this is in contrast to incorporate the island.

The Americans in Greenland have been militarily present for decades. Washington has operated its own military base in the northwest of the massive ice island since 1951. By 2020, the system was called Thule Air Base, in 2023 the location was allocated to the United States Space Force Command and renamed Pituffik Space Base. The delegation around JD Vance ends up here on Friday.

But Trump is not satisfied with the military base. The US President wants to control the entire island of Erlangen and Greenland a US outdoor area. That should be difficult, but a middle ground is already ready as a template. It is a so -called Compact of Free Association, an agreement in free association. “This is how the Americans have already done it with some Pacific countries: Palau, Micronesia and the Marshall Islands,” explains expert Saalbach.

The Marshall Islands have been in “Free Association” with the United States since 1986 after the citizens of the island state had voted in a referendum three years earlier. The agreement with the United States was synonymous with independence, before that the Marshall Islands were a UN true-to-trust area controlled by the United States.

The association contract with the federated states of micronesia has also existed since 1986.

Palau with its just 17,000 inhabitants is also geographically belonging to micronesia, but in the late 1970s against a participation in the State Association of the Micronesian Islands and for independence. The agreement with the USA has existed since 1994.

In return, the Americans get the right to intervene in the foreign policy of the federal states. Specifically means that if the USA is threatened by foreign policy measures by the island states, they can take a veto.

In Greenland, too, such an association agreement has already been flirted. “This was discussed at the University of Nuuk, the capital of Greenland,” reports Saalbach in the NTV .

The election winner Jens-Frederik Nielsen, before Trump and his annexation plans, also went public with such an association agreement.

From the American’s point of view, that would also be a conceivable model, Saalbach is convinced. “In this way, the Chinese and the Russians from Greenland could be kept out. Greenland will take over the chair of the Arctic Council for the next two years and has set itself the goal of bringing Russia back to the council.” Russia is currently suspended due to the war of aggression in Ukraine. Greenland wants to change that: “On the grounds that the problems of the Arctic could only be solved together by all Arctic states,” reports Saalbach.

Meanwhile, Trump is demonstratively confident as always. He was certain that the United States would get Greenland “in one way or another”. Although according to a survey, 85 percent of the Greenlanders do not want to become part of the United States. And Denmark does not want to give up the world’s largest island. “I think it will happen,” said Trump shortly after the election in Greenland at a meeting with NATO general secretary Mark Rutte. “We need Greenland for international security,” Trump has already made it clear several times. The US President thus alludes to the presence of the Russians and Chinese in the Arctic.

From a strategic point of view, Greenland is actually important for Washington. “Today one speaks especially about the Greenland iceland-UK-GAP, the Giuk gap. Here Russian submarines and ships have to go through if they want to go to the Atlantic. “Again learned” confirmed in January. “In addition, the region is interesting because of its resources, supposedly one of the largest deposits of rare earths in Greenland.”

Trump, however, is not the first American president with a purchase interest in Greenland, Paul makes it clear. “The first mention of such an idea dates from 1832. In the past, such business was common. The United States bought Alaska to the tsarist Russia in 1867. But we are no longer in the 19th century.”

And the Democratic Party of Bald government head Nielsen clearly formulated it in her election program: “Greenland is not for sale. Not today. Not tomorrow. Never.” The previous prime minister Eggede, whose party, as one of three junior partners should remain part of the future government, can “not accept” the annexation plans from Trump.

Michael Paul also sees no realistic scenario that Trump could be successful with his annexation plan. “Trump is known for taking great plans and then only realizing small parts. In this case, he again places a large project in the room, which will ultimately lead to a relatively pragmatic cooperation.”

There are currently several scenarios that could continue with Trump and Greenland. A theoretical possibility is that Trump simply loses interest in Greenland and everything remains as it is.

Another theoretical option: Trump pulls the military map and marches into Greenland. For the US troops, it would be an easy undertaking to take Greenland. American soldiers have long been stationed in Greenland. At the same time, such a maneuver would be synonymous with the end of NATO if the United States is attacked by an area that is under the NATO protection screen.

Another option remains: Greenland is slowly pushing for Denmark, but constantly noticing that it is not possible without the economic aids from Copenhagen. The United States is ready to step in economically. “The Greenlanders would be grateful and happy if the Americans enlarge their economic engagement in Greenland,” said Arctic expert Paul in the NTV- . “That alone would be a big deal. In this respect, you can get together quickly and easily without Greenland submitting to the USA as a new Hegemon.”

Thanks to the financial injections from Washington, Greenland could become independent, but would have to make great concessions to the Americans in return. For example, in the form of shockbacks for the soil treasures. Or they agree on an association contract, such as micronesia, the Marshall Islands and Palau have concluded with the USA.

This text was first published in another form on March 23, 2025 on NTV.de.

Transparency note: Like NTV, the star is part of RTL Germany.