France: Why the judgment against Le Pen is so drastic

The condemnation of the popular right -wing national politician Marine Le Pen due to embezzlement to two years in prison by anklewesser and her expected exclusion from the presidential election meets France like a thunderstall. Opponents of Le Pens Right party like to rejoice. But the unprecedented judgment should have a serious consequences for the French policy already in the crisis.

What does the judgment mean for Le Pen?

The verdict is not yet final and Le Pen will appeal, which will probably mean years of gear through the instances. Regardless of this, your reputation is seriously damaged by the guilty verdict and the sensitive punishment. Le Pen will hardly be able to read the politicians of other parties as unchecked as before. Le Pen will continue to sit in parliament as a member of the parliament until the end of the election period. However, her political career seems to be put on hold for the time being.

Does Le Pen no longer have a chance on the presidential candidacy?

The 56-year-old has been striving for years in the Élyséepalast, the official residence of the French presidents in Paris: immediately and most hardest, she for the time being hits the punishment imposed with immediate effect not being able to compete for political offices in elections. The punishment is not unusual for corruption processes in France. But she probably thwarts Le Pens plans to become a candidate in the upcoming presidential election in spring 2027. Because it is questionable whether there will be a final judgment of higher instance by then. And there is a long lead for the presidential election anyway, which begins in one year at the latest.

How will Le Pens supporters react to the judgment?

That is still unclear. The verdict could damage their reputation even in the circle of their sympathizers – especially since their party races nationally (marginal) for election victories also relies on the votes of the moderate conservative center. But the opposite could also occur: as a supposed judicial victim, your supporters could worship even more and give your party new upswing.

What does the judgment mean for the political mood in France?

Some political opponents should rub their hands in the face of the far -reaching sentence – but it is not that simple. Even moderate politicians had previously warned to prove Le Pen with a ban on office. The public prosecutor had argued that the same right should apply to everyone. But now the most popular politician is being pulled out of circulation – and thus one whose followers repeatedly question the rule of law and the independence of the judiciary.

In November, Gérald Darmanin, today’s Minister of Justice, had described the scenario that Le Pen could be banned with an assembly ban. “The fight against Madame Le Pen takes place at the ballot boxes, not elsewhere.” He added: “Don’t let us be afraid of democracy and avoid deepening the difference between the” elites “and the vast majority of our fellow citizens.”

Will Le Pen try to overthrow the government now?

Most recently, Le Pen had relied on a moderate course: responsibility instead of riot, the motto was mostly among the debates in parliament, in which the minority government of the center politician François Bayrou already had a hard time. So far, Le Pen has refrained from supporting Bayrous’s fall for the fall of the left warehouse. It has to be shown whether this changes and the party relies on the political crisis. It will also depend on whether President Emmanuel Macron is now in difficult waters.

What Le Pens party thinks of the judgment immediately made it clear to chairman Jordan Bardella: he described it as a death blow for France’s democracy.

Could the judgment also deepen political trenches in Europe?

The risk that Darmanin has shown applies not only to France – but also to Europe as a whole. The right -wing populist camp is likely to solve the verdict by trying to fuel doubts about the independence of the judiciary in democratic states such as France.

And reactions followed promptly: Italy’s vice head of government and head of the Lega Right Party, Matteo Salvini, spoke of a “declaration of war” with which one wanted to exclude the former presidential candidate from political life. The Hungarian Prime Minister Victor Orban, who had recently approached Le Pen, stated with a “Je Suis Marine” (“I am Marine”) on x solidarity with the legal politician – as if this victim of a judiciary controlled by political opponents.

And beyond Europe, the judgment also caused reactions. The Kremlin in Moscow criticized it as a violation of democratic rules. “Our observations in the European capitals show that one is by no means reserved to cross the limits of democracy in the political process,” said Kreml spokesman Dmitri Peskow in Moscow.

Not excluded that the highest level in the USA will react to it. US Vice President JD Vance has accused the states in Europe, which was actually allied with the United States, to limit freedom of expression and joint democratic basic values. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly referred to the judicial action against him as a “witch hunt” and accused the political opponents of the Democrats to want to prevent him as president – if it is not at the ballot boxes.

What opportunities are the young party leader Bardella granted?

Bardella has been chief of the racial emile since November 2022. This ended an era: because the name Le Pen is in the identity of the party – and the predecessor Front National. The recently deceased father of Marine Le Pen, Jean-Marie Le Pen, founded the right-wing extremist Front National. The 2018 party named his daughter – in an effort to give her a more moderate face. The change at the party leadership was a continuation of this strategy.

It is expected that Bardella is now in position for the 2027 candidacy. For the first time, Le Pen confirmed in an interview at the weekend that Bardella had what it takes to become president. But it is questionable whether Le Pen is so easy to replace. In today’s mood, she would move into a presidential election as a favorite. In addition, the 29-year-old has significantly less political experience than her, even if the eloquent young politician is omnipresent in the media.

However, it is impossible to make a clear forecast of what happens in a presidential election in France in two years – the country is known for spontaneous developments. Last but not least, the current President Emmanuel Macron showed that, who reached astonishing popularity values ​​within a very short time and became president in 2017, although hardly anyone knew him three years before the election outside the Paris political bubble.