Migration: Change of course in migration policy is still uncertain

Despite possible legal and practical hurdles, politicians from the CDU and CSU are optimistic that the course of the course they announced will succeed in changing the course in migration policy. The coalition agreement negotiated by the Union and the SPD is a “reliable basis” to further reduce the number of asylum seekers at short notice, says Bayern’s Interior Minister, Joachim Herrmann (CSU).

Union parliamentary group manager Thorsten Frei promised regular deportation fees to Afghanistan and Syria for the future. “The Germans can rely on that,” said the CDU politician of the “Bild” newspaper. Migrant associations, however, were satisfied that some changes in the right of the Union do not come.

The most important planned changes

The CDU/CSU and SPD coalition agreement states: “In coordination with our European neighbors, we will also make rejections at the common limits even in the event of asylum requests.” There will be no new voluntary federal recording programs. There should be no family reunification for people with limited protection status for at least two years.

In order to persuade the country of origin of more cooperation in the withdrawal of their citizens, pressure should be exerted if necessary- for example, about development cooperation, economic and trade relationships and visa policy. The naturalization of particularly well integrated foreigners as “turbo naturalization” as a “turbo naturalization” will soon no longer exist.

Rejection of asylum seekers

Herrmann rejects that the reservation of doing this “in coordination” with the neighbors could slow down the plan. On the one hand, every state may decide at its limits who may and who is not. Above all, however, the other EU countries also wanted a reduction in refugee figures. He believes: “There will be no problem at all.”

In the evening after the presentation of the coalition agreement at “RTL”, Merz himself said directly: “We will do this in coordination with our European neighbors. And this vote is ongoing.” He did not want to say whether this means that all asylum seekers will be rejected at the limits in the future.

Switzerland insists on European law

“Switzerland reserves the right to react accordingly, from our point of view, the rejection should violate the applicable law,” said a spokesman for the Swiss Federal Office for Migration on request. It is expected that general passenger and goods traffic will continue to remain as unaffected as possible. The speaker referred to the “bilateral return agreement between Germany and Switzerland, Dublin law and the Geneva Refugee Convention”.

Austria basically welcomes the plans of the black and red coalition. For the planned rejection of migrants at the German border, a spokesman for the Interior Ministry in Vienna said: “We are confident that the actions of the German authorities will take place on the ground of the legal system at the EU internal borders.”

The Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk had already stated at the end of March according to the news agency Pap that there was a valid agreement with Germany about migrant takeover. However, Poland is unable to take over migrants from other EU countries due to the inclusion of a high number of refugees from Ukraine and due to the migration pressure on its eastern border with Belarus.

The Czech Interior Minister Vit Rakusan had already been open to the common border at the beginning of March for far -reaching communication with Germany. At the same time, he warned of a possible domino effect of the border controls in the Schengen area.

Last year, 229,751 people made an asylum application for the first time in Germany. That was around 100,000 asylum applications less than in the previous year.

At the EU level, a point is currently being discussed that could possibly be tightened in the already agreed reform of the common European asylum system (GEAS). Specifically, it is about whether the so -called connecting element is deleted from the concept of the safe third country. The Greens in particular had rejected this.

So far, according to GEAS reform, asylum seekers may only be sent to third countries to which they have a personal connection – for example because they used to live there. The CDU, CSU and SPD coalition agreement now states that Germany will now take an initiative to cancel the “connection element” at European level. However, no state has yet been found that would be willing to accept asylum seekers from Europe on a large scale.

More voluntary departures and deportations

The traffic light coalition also explained that Germany is left to leave. In fact, the number of deportations has increased in the past two years. According to the Federal Ministry of the Interior, there were 20,084 returns after 16,430 deportations in the previous year. However, the level of the years before Corona pandemic was not achieved in 2024.

Among other things, this is because in recent years there was only a collective deportation to Afghanistan and no deportations to Syria. The two countries have been among the main countries of origin of asylum seekers in Germany for a long time. Above all, the federal government is of great interest in being able to bring criminals and radical Islamists back there.

In some countries of origin, the prospect of more restrictive visa rules or trade barriers, as provided for by the coalition agreement for countries, which leads to more willingness to cooperate when returning their walls subject to departure. But without a European procedure, the effect of such threats should be low.

Practical hurdles for deportations to Afghanistan and Syria

Deportations to Afghanistan are particularly difficult. At the end of August 2024, 28 male criminals from Germany were brought to Afghanistan with the help of Qatar. Since then, despite the appropriate efforts by the traffic light government, there has been no further deportation to the country, which has been reigned by the Islamist Taliban since August 2021.

The CDU politician still remains optimistic. The “picture” he says that the flight in late summer 2024 finally showed that it worked. “That is why we are convinced that we can do this in the future, permanently and in much larger areas.”

With representatives of the transitional government, which has established itself in Syria after the fall of long-term power holder Bashar al-Assad, there have already been some encounters that have moved the deportations into the Arab country back into the area of ​​the possible. But the situation there is still so unstable that the executive Federal Minister of the Interior Nancy Faeser (SPD) had to cancel a planned short visit to Damascus at the end of March.

Muslims feel over

The fact that Germany is referred to as a “immigration -friendly country” in the coalition agreement is a reason for relief, says the federal chairman of the Turkish community in Germany (TGD), Gökay Sofuoglu. At the same time, he calls on the coalitioners to ensure that people with a migration background also find a place when filling the cabinet posts.

The co-chair of the umbrella organization, Aslihan Yesilkaya-Yurtbay, says it is good that a clear commitment to the unconditional protection of Jews in Germany had been included in the coalition agreement. But she adds: “In view of the exploding numbers in the area of ​​racist attacks, I would have liked that black people, Muslims and Sinti and Roma experience a comparable consideration in the text”.

The Federal President of the Central Council of Muslims in Germany, Abdassamad El Yazidi, says: “Muslim women and Muslims are an integral part of this country. Their structural invisibility in the coalition agreement is no coincidence – it is a political lack that will have consequences.”