Nuclear dispute: Talks between the USA and Iran – is a new atomic deal?

US President Donald Trump had recently threatened Iran with a massive bombing – now for the first time in years of diplomatic ice age, movement in the dialogue about Tehran’s controversial nuclear program. Today, a round of talks between Iran and the USA begins with the mediation of the Sultanate Oman. For Tehran, Foreign Minister Abbas Araghtschi travels. The US specialist Steve Witkoff comes for Washington. Answers to central questions:

What about the conversations?

The core of the dispute is the Iranian nuclear program. While Tehran emphasizes that it is only used for civilian purposes, governments in the West fear the construction of an atomic bomb. Iranian politicians and officers recently heated the debate with demands for nuclear weapons for military deterrence.

In 2015, Iran agreed to restrict its nuclear program after long negotiations with contractual partners – including China, Russia, the USA, the USA, Germany and Great Britain. However, US President Donald Trump unilaterally got out of the pact in 2018 and imposed new, hard sanctions. Then Tehran no longer adhered to the requirements of the agreement.

What is the US government now demanding from Tehran?

Trump’s national security advisor Mike Waltz called for a “complete disassembly” of the Iranian nuclear program. Tehran immediately rejected this claim. Trump has repeatedly threatened Iran with military violence if Tehran should not agree to a new agreement to limit his nuclear program. Iran’s head of state Ali Chamenei, on the other hand, emphasized that he does not want to conduct negotiations under pressure. Shortly before the start of the talks, Trump said in a somewhat more conciliatory pitch: “I want Iran to be a wonderful, great, happy country, but he shouldn’t have a nuclear weapon.”

Are the United States ready to compromise?

Witkoff indicated some willingness to compromise before the meeting. Iran should not be able to build an atomic bomb for the United States, that is the “red line”, the US specialist told Wall Street Journal. Witkoff quoted the US newspaper with the words that the USA would enter dialogue with the demand for a disassembly of the Iranian nuclear program. That was the starting position, said Witkoff, but added: “Incidentally, this does not mean that we will not find other ways on the side to find a compromise between the two countries.”

Why is the time for a new deal?

For civilian use, for example in nuclear power, uranium only has to be enriched slightly. Iran currently enriches uranium with a purity degree of 60 percent. The head of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Rafael Grossi, has repeatedly pointed out that Iran is the only state without nuclear weapons that produces such an almost armable material.

The Viennese agreement – even if it is actually no longer implemented – formally runs out in October 2025. This eliminates the possibility of using the so-called snapback mechanism old and strict UN sanctions against Iran without greater resistance. European diplomats therefore recently pushed for progress in the negotiations. The United States can no longer trigger the mechanism after Trump’s exit.

How does the current round differ from previous conversations?

The talks have been stalling for years. The violent procedure of the security forces against the protests under the motto “Woman, Life, Freedom” in autumn 2022 further urged Iran into political isolation. Since then there have been no significant progress in the few meetings between European representatives and Tehran.

What is new is that the negotiations filled the negotiations again – with a delegation led by Foreign Minister Araghtschi, an experienced diplomat with expertise in nuclear negotiations. Witkoff, in turn, is considered a close familiar Trump.

What does Iran hope for from the conversations?

Iran’s government combines two central hopes with the prospect of a new deal: a defusing of the military tensions in the region and the abolition of sanctions, as Iran expert Hamidreza Azii explains in a contribution to the European Leadership Network. Despite poor experiences with the Trump government, negotiations will be broad.

Even the prospect of a conversation with the USA triggered new hope in Iran – with a direct impact on the foreign exchange market. The state currency Rial in the meantime won around five percent compared to the euro. In the past few months, the currency has crashed in the face of dark economic perspectives, fears of war and threats to Trump.

How likely is a new atomic deal?

Before the talks in Oman, the US government clearly dampened expectations. “These are not negotiations, that is a meeting,” said the spokeswoman for the US State Department, Tammy Bruce. One just wants to explore what is basically possible. “It is a contact – and no longer,” said Bruce.

Insiders in Tehran, however, remind of patience. A degree could take longer than a year. The main decisive factor is the atmosphere at the first meeting between Witkoff and Araghtschi. However, failure with subsequent military escalation is not excluded, it is said. However, Trump currently has a lot of other construction sites with the Ukraine War, the Gaza conflict and the global customs dispute. At the moment, he should not necessarily create it on an escalation with Iran.

What role does the conflict between Iran and Israel play?

Israel looks at a possible new atomic deal with Iran with distrust. Last year the two countries stood several times on the edge of an open war. Israel repeatedly threatened attacks on Iranian nuclear systems. For decades, the Iranian leadership has been calling for the annihilation of the Jewish state.

Israel and the United States agree that Iran should not have any nuclear weapons, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu recently said in Washington. Netanyahu, once one of the sharpest critics of the Vienna nuclear agreement, a new deal emphasized was acceptable if he led to the destruction of all Iranian nuclear facilities. The fact that Tehran gets involved with such a claim is almost excluded.

Can the Iranian nuclear program be stopped militarily?

Experts doubt that the nuclear program could be stopped by a military beat. That would be an “extraordinarily complex military commitment”, according to an analysis of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. In addition, the centrifuge program can be rebuilt relatively quickly.

According to experts, air strikes would only throw back the nuclear program for some time, but would not stop in the long term. In addition, a military strike could move Iran to develop nuclear weapons.

Iran’s leadership has already threatened with retaliation in the event of an attack. The country has an unknown number of underground missiles that can reach Israel. The Navy also announced that the Hormus road, which is important for oil exports in the Persian Golf, can also be blocked. At the same time, important allies of Iran – the Hisbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip – are extremely weak due to the procedure of the Israeli military since the massacre of October 7, 2023. In Syria, Tehran most recently lost the long-time ruler Bashar al-Assad as allies.

Why do the talks take place in Oman?

The desert state maintains good relationships according to Washington and Tehran and has repeatedly made a name for itself as a discrete intermediary in crises. Because of its pragmatic attitude and the principle of non -interference, the sultanate is also referred to as the “Switzerland of the Middle East”. In the Iran talks, Oman’s Foreign Minister Badr al-Busaidi will mediate between Araghtschi and Witkoff.