Black-red coalition: less taxes, more minimum wages? For Merz “not fixed”

The income tax is intended to be extended, the minimum wage, the mother’s pension – but only days after the presentation of its coalition agreement, the CDU, CSU and SPD show that the last word has not yet been spoken in many ways. Which projects come at all – if everything is subject to that you can afford it? Streit is already emerging in a black and red federal government that is not even sworn in.

“All measures of the coalition agreement are subject to financing,” it is in line 1627 of the agreement between the Union and SPD. This can also be understood as a sign that the negotiators could not agree where to save – and which measures are given priority in a new government.

Merz: Tax reduction, “if the household gives”

Example income tax: “We will reduce income tax for small and medium -sized incomes to the middle of the legislature”, says the coalition agreement. For the presumably new Chancellor Friedrich Merz, an agreement with reservation. “No, it’s not fixed,” said the CDU leader of the “Bild am Sonntag”. “We want to reduce the income tax if the public budget has.”

When it comes to taxes, the Union and SPD are as far apart as with hardly any other. CDU and CSU want to reduce taxes for everyone, for companies, for citizens with small ones, but also with higher incomes. The SPD wants to redistribute: tax cuts for low and normal earners, but additional loads for wealthy and heirs of high sums.

Thick air in negotiations

This led the coalition negotiations to a tilting point. On Monday before the agreement there was a “critical phase”, Merz reported in the “Handelsblatt”. The SPD again called for tax increases, the CDU chief made a clear rejection. “You can do a coalition agreement with tax increases. But then he won’t get my signature,” he said, reported Merz. In the end they “agreed reasonably”.

This means that whether the taxes are actually reduced must be fought at a later date. “CDU/CSU know how important this point is to us,” emphasized SPD general secretary Matthias Miersch in the newspapers of the Funke media group. If the tax reduction does not come, citizens could even have less net in their pockets at the end of the reign because the social amounts are increasing. This fear is “certainly not unjustified from today’s perspective,” admitted Merz in the “Bild am Sonntag”.

Saving pressure despite billions of bills

Why does a new federal government have to save if you have just created the opportunity for billions in debt? With the loosening of the debt brake for defense spending and a 500 billion euro special pot for investments in infrastructure and climate protection, the Union and SPD have put together a historical financial package before the Chancellor election.

However, this does not mean that “money is there for everything” emphasized Jens Spahn. “We still have to consolidate very, very strongly. And we also have to work out the freedom for the reforms that we plan,” said the CDU politician of the “Bild” newspaper.

On the one hand, this is due to the fact that the special pot may only be used for additional projects that go beyond the usual investments in the household. But also because the hole in the federal budget is simply enormous. Calculated over the entire legislature by 2029, one should come to a three -digit billions.

The difference between “becoming” and “wanting”

Therefore, “very intensive, not only harmonious”, was negotiated on savings contributions, SPD boss Lars Klingbeil had already reported when the coalition agreement was presented. You can already see a lot from the formulations: only rarely is “we will”. “And some stands” we want “, and that means we do it, but whether it can be financed must be checked in the end.”

The example of income tax shows how unsafe this interpretation is: “We will” are in line 1442 of the contract – and yet Merz is now subject to the project.

Greens boss Felix Banaszak therefore accuses the likely future government partners. “You have to seriously ask yourself what this agreement is actually worth if everyone interprets it for themselves before it is decided,” he told the newspapers of the Funke media group. “Where should the citizens still know what the new government stands for?”

Depreciation emphasis should come safely

The planned measures for tax relief for companies should come safely. “These depreciation are not that expensive. They enable investments, and thank God we agree with the SPD,” Merz had already insured in the ARD “focus” in the middle of the week.

Also Union faction manager Thorsten Frei (CDU) does not see everything equally under the financing reservation. There was a clear priority for more growth and competitiveness, he emphasized.

Vetomacht finance Ministry

The financing reservation in the coalition agreement gives a lot of design power in particular: the Ministry of Finance, which is managed by the SPD in the new government. A new finance minister will have a kind of veto law and thus make the opportunity to make projects of individual coalitioners significantly more difficult.

Anyone who takes over the ministry is not yet clear. Klingbeil is the likely option, which could become a powerful vice chancellor.

The last instance in disputes will continue to be the coalition committee with top politicians from all three partners. Every month you want to meet CDU, CSU and SPD.

Merz slows down at the minimum wage

And here, too, a point of dispute is already foreseeable: the minimum wage. The coalition agreement agreed that the amount will continue to be determined by the minimum wage commission. “In this way, a minimum wage of 15 euros can be reached in 2026,” it says.

Merz said in the “Bild am Sonntag” that this amount may not be reached until 2027. The SPD spent the goal in 2026. And also some in the Union. “From 2026, the statutory minimum wage must be raised by the minimum wage commission to 60 percent of the median income,” said the CDU social wing CDA. The CDU should not leave social issues to the SPD, emphasized the Vice Federal Chair of the Employee Association, Christian Bäumler.