The 15-euro question: what the dispute is about the minimum wage, which is about

The new coalition has not even started – and the Union and SPD are already debating about the income of millions of employees. The background is the statutory minimum wage and a significant increase to 15 euros. That’s what it’s about:

The statutory minimum wage was introduced in 2015. It was a central project of the SPD in the grand coalition at the time in the fight against dumping wages. At the start of 2015, the minimum wage was 8.50 euros. According to the law, an independent commission has to decide every two years about adjustments to the amount. This happened last time in June 2023. Minister of Labor Hubertus Heil (SPD) implemented a corresponding proposal from the Commission. According to this, the minimum wage rose from 12.00 to EUR 12.41 on January 1, 2024 and on January 1, 2025 to 12.82 euros. The German Trade Union Confederation assumes a total of six million people with a minimum wage in Germany.

The minimum wage commission wants to take the next decision to adapt the minimum wage by the end of June 2025. This is intended to determine the amount of the minimum wage for the years 2026 and 2027.

What exactly is in the coalition agreement?

One of the central promises of the SPD in the election campaign was to increase the minimum wage to 15 euros. The Union, on the other hand, emphasized the role of the independent commission. The CDU, CSU and SPD coalition agreement states that the development of the minimum wage must make a contribution to stronger purchasing power and stable domestic demand in Germany. “We stick to a strong and independent minimum wage commission.”

For the further development of the minimum wage, the Commission will be based on collective bargaining and 60 percent of the gross wage of full -time employees as part of an overall assessment. “In this way, a minimum wage of 15 euros can be reached in 2026.”

What is the current debate about?

First and foremost, it is about how the sentences from the coalition agreement are interpreted and when exactly the minimum wage increases to 15 euros. Probably the new Chancellor and CDU boss Friedrich Merz told the “Bild am Sonntag”, possibly only in 2027 the amount of 15 euros. In a paper paper on the coalition agreement, it says: “The minimum wage will increase to 15 euros by 2026.”

DGB board member Stefan Körzell told the German Press Agency that after a total assessment of the minimum wage commission, the DGB assumed that the conditions for a minimum wage of around 15 euros will be met in the coming year.

What is the minimum wage commission?

Körzell is a member of the Commission. This consists of a chairwoman, six voting members from the group of social partners and two advisory members from science without voting rights. There was great trouble in 2023, because the recommendation in the Commission was not made for the first time. The employee representatives considered the increase to be too low, but were overruled and made serious accusations against the employer side. In the commission’s rules of procedure, it now states that it should “usually” bring about a unanimous decision.

Why is the Union important the independence of the Commission?

In accordance with the employers, the CDU and CSU say: It is better to orientate yourself to the actual economic situation – instead of issuing income politically. There was a big dispute in 2022. Because the then traffic light from the SPD, Greens and FDP increased the minimum wage unscheduled to 12 euros on October 1, 2022. At that time, employers criticized this as a “state wage dictation”.

What are the criteria of the Commission?

The chairman Christiane Schönefeld emphasizes with a view to the commission: “Your members are not subject to instructions in the perception of their work.” The committee turn to its decision on the adaptation of the wages. “As part of an overall assessment, it is based, among other things, to the tariff development and the reference value of 60 percent of the gross wage of full -time employees.” This is exactly how it is formulated in the coalition agreement.

What role does the EU minimum wage directive play?

The guideline stipulates that the minimum wage is no less than 60 percent of the so -called median wage of a country – this is a statistical calculation size, also called “medium” wage. The Hans-Böckler Foundation, close to the trade union, has calculated that on the basis of data from the Federal Statistical Office, there is a minimum wage of 14.88 to 15.02 euros in 2026 and from 15.31 to 15.48 euros in 2027.

If you use calculations by the OECD, a minimum wage level of 15.12 euros would be required for the current year to achieve the target of 60 percent. Körzell said that in the past Germany regularly undercut the reference value of 60 percent. “The need to catch up is correspondingly large.”

How does the economy see the debate?

The minimum wage commission may differ from its criteria – if “special economic circumstances” are available. The German economy is in a crisis. After two years in a row, mini growth is expected for the current year. The current economic situation does not give an increase in the minimum wage to 15 euros, said Clemens Fuest in February. The minimum wage cannot rise significantly more than wages.

In a statement by several Mondays, the minimum wage has increased by more than 30 percent since 2022. “Many employers, especially in medium -sized companies, can no longer manage this financially.”