Social security levies: Why higher social contributions are becoming more and more a problem

For many people in Germany, health insurance was more expensive for many people in Germany at the turn of the year. In the future, the contribution spiral will screw the burdens for health insurance, pension and care to ever larger heights. What is behind the development? And how do economists evaluate the handling of the black and red coalition that arises?

How do the health insurance contributions develop?

At the turn of the year, there was an increase in the additional contributions on a broad front. At the beginning of the year, additional contributions of an average of 2.9 percent came to the general 14.6 percent contribution rate. The government had set the official orientation value for this to 2.5 percent – that was already 0.8 percentage points more than 2024. For the next two years, it is expecting around 0.2 contributions more, says Essen Economist Jürgen Wasem, known for his health calculations.

What is the situation in the other insurance branches?

At the turn of the year, the care contribution had increased by 0.2 points to 3.6 percent for insured persons with a child – and should go upwards after Wasem’s expectation. In addition to demography, the reasons include increases in wages among nurses.

It is 2.6 percent for unemployment insurance – despite cost prints, the sentence should remain stable for the time being. The pension contribution rate is heavily discussed: How long will it stay with 18.6 percent of the gross salary?

The traffic lights already had a pension reform and estimated the contribution for 2035 to 22.3 percent. As with the failed reform of the traffic light government, the coalition contract draft of the CDU/CSU and SPD initially provides for a stable pension level of 48 percent. That costs billions. The President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), Marcel Fratzscher, is already warning: “If the contribution rate increases significantly due to a stable pension level, the economy in Germany is damaged.”

What happens without reforms with the articles?

“Over the next 10 years, demographic change is fully striking the social security expenditure,” says Mannheim economist Nicolas Ziebarth. The so -called baby boomers are now saying goodbye to the labor market. Politicians have ignored the fact that the demography effects are enormous in health insurance, similar to the retirement, criticizes Wasem. “Older people need an average of three to four times as many achievements as younger ones.”

The private sector research institute IGES has calculated which share of income in the coming years is due for the social systems. “If you continue basic trends (…), there will be a total burden of social security contributions in the amount of almost 49 percent in ten years,” says IGES Managing Director Martin Albrecht, “with a spectrum between almost 46 with cheaper and 53 percent in the event of unfavorable development.” Today it is around 42 percent.

Why do high social costs weigh particularly heavily today?

They can be compensated for less than before by economic growth. DIW President Fratzscher expects Germany to experience the third year in a row because of the customs conflict with the United States. But even if everything is currently going well, Fratzscher sees only a potential growth of 0.3 percent for the coming years. “The German economy no longer has a greater growth potential.”

Wasem explains: “The piece that is cut out of the prosperity cake for health and long -term care insurance is getting bigger – only the cake no longer grows.” So growth in wealth in Germany is limited. The aging of society is also a reason for this, not only for the increasing social costs. Because there are less younger ones at the same time, and so there is a “strong decline in employment in Germany”, says Fratzscher. In the future, more people will need benefits – but less generate growth.

How does the coalition react to the pointed location?

Disgusting from the economist’s point of view. For example, commissions should first be used for care and health. He doesn’t expect much from these, says Ziebarth from the Center for European Economic Research (ZEW). “The ideological differences (…) are too big.” In principle, the Union wants to contribute more, i.e. that insured persons contribute more themselves. The SPD, on the other hand, wants wealthy to deposit more.

Fratzscher says: “Our welfare state is currently a little less generational from year to year.” Jung too old is increasingly redistributed. “The coalition agreement tightens the problem: Instead of proposals to limit the future increase in contributions, there are expensive promises such as a stable pension level and a widened mother’s pension,” says Fratzscher. “Obviously, neither the Union nor the SPD want to bother their voters with any imposition.”

What are the consequences of high contributions?

“High social security contributions inhibit private consumption, which contributes more than half to economic performance,” says Fratzscher. “If the people in Germany do not spend again, sustainable economic recovery will hardly succeed.”

Ziebarth says: “The increasing social contributions are one of the most pressing challenges for the German economy today.” And how much high contributions do the companies inhibit? Ziebarth says: “Studies suggest that 50,000 to 100,000 jobs are expected per year per social contribution position.” But that is only an approximation value.

IW researcher Pimpertz About rising social contributions IGES forecast on the coalition agreement event of the PKV association for social contributions Current contribution rates of the German health insurance companies