Junction in Great Britain: Local elections in England: Beginning of the Tories?

In the week of the English local elections, the title page of the renowned British magazine “Economist” shows the large -format face of a man who looks through sunglasses with a casual expression.

He did not hold a public office and only made the leap as a member of the British Parliament in the eighth attempt. Nevertheless, Nigel Farage, Brexit powers and head of the right-wing populist reform party, is a “man whom Great Britain cannot ignore”, as the “Economist” titles.

Farage as the Tories’s death graves?

But is he also Great Britain’s next prime minister and gravedigger of the Tories, the traditional conservative party? This is his declared goal, as he made clear in conversation with the German Press Agency last year.

The fact that it could happen is no longer considered excluded. And the result of the local elections, which are held in parts of England this Thursday, could prove to be omen.

Council members are chosen in around two dozen districts in large parts of England. And it is above all the Tory party, the famous heads of government such as War Prime Minister Winston Churchill and the “Iron Lady” Margaret Thatcher, who has to worry.

Tories made Farage’s topics about their own

Under ex-Prime Minister Boris Johnson, the Tories achieved a win in the local elections in the same districts in 2021. It is now feared that they will lose around half of their almost 1,000 municipal council seats – many of them to Farage’s party reform uk.

For a long time, the conservative Farage were able to keep away, which competed in various party incarnations such as Ukip, the Brexit party and finally reform UK from the right. EU exit, boat refugees, the fight against “Wokes” ideas: Whatever Farage paying attention to, the Tories were soon on hand and his views adopted.

Reform UK is in front in polls

But the gap was finally shrinking significantly. Similar to the AfD in Germany, the Farage Party has increased again in surveys after the recent parliamentary election. At 25 percent, she is even in front of the Labor government party (23 percent) and the Tories (21 percent). In addition, the current conservative party leader Kemi Badenoch is considered weak.

If there was now a parliamentary election, according to estimates, reform could become the largest faction in the British parliament. That would be a shock, because so far the British majority voting right has mostly reliably ensured that either the conservative or Labor received a clear government mandate. Although not officially, Great Britain was a two-party system.

Flirting with a pact or coalition

The nightmare of the Tories is that this system could be permanently disturbed, or worse, settled in again – but not with the Tories – but with a reform as a counterpoint to Labor. The conservatives therefore already discuss whether it would be better to close a pact or a coalition with FARAGE. Badenoch at least excludes this at the national level. But her party -internal adversary Robert Jenrick already flirted publicly.

The next parliamentary election is only pending in 2029, and local election results are only meaningful for national trends. But political professor Tony Tony from the London School of Economics believes that the now well-organized Farage party would significantly benefit from a success at the local level: “It will significantly increase the skills of gaining reforms to win parliamentary mandates,” he said ahead of journalists shortly before the election date. So far, Reform has been in the lower house with just four MPs.

Labor has “Paranoia” before reform

The fear of Farage is also great in the ruling Labor party. LSE policy professor Sara Hobolt even speaks of a “paranoia”. The background to this is that many traditional Labor voters from the workers’ class, especially in the north of the country, had spoken out for the EU exit at the Brexit referendum. With them, Farages are likely to come across fertile soil.

The local elections also don’t look good for Labor. But their losses will be limited because the party had already cut off poorly in the past election. In addition, the Social Democrats have a rich majority in parliament. Labor should therefore “perhaps a little more on governance and focus a little less on reform,” says Hobolt.