Survey: Many people consider the Third World War to be likely

On May 8, 1945, the German Wehrmacht surrendered unconditionally. This ended the Second World War in Europe. It was 80 years ago. To date, the date is a symbol of the liberation from fascism.

On this occasion, the Youngov survey institute wanted to know how people in five European countries and the USA think about the Second World War whether they keep a repetition of history and a new global conflict.

The results were that star Exclusive in advance.

In all countries, a considerable part of the respondents considers the outbreak of a Third World War to be likely or even very likely in the next five to ten years. In France, the proportion of concerns is greatest with 55 percent. In Germany, less than half believe in it.

Above all, the prevailing tensions with Russia regard many respondents as a danger to peace in Europe (an average of 78 percent), followed by Islamist terrorism (72 percent). In Germany, 55 percent of the respondents also state tensions with the United States as a risk of peace.

In the event of a war, the Germans would not rely on the defense capacity of the Bundeswehr. The majority think that the Bundeswehr cannot effectively defend the country in the event of a conflict. The greatest proportion of the optimists is still among the supporters of the SPD, which provides the Minister of Defense with Boris Pistorius. There is least trust in the AfD and BSW camps.

An average of 57 percent of those surveyed stated that their country should jump aside for a European NATO partner in the event of an attack. Among the respondents in Germany, the proportion was 65 percent, only in Great Britain it was higher.

Yougov also wanted to know from the respondents whether they think it is possible that crimes like that of the National Socialists will repeat themselves during their lifetime. The majority of Europeans trust that this does not happen at least in Germany. The Germans, on the other hand, are skeptical.The risk that the corresponding in the United States or another Western European country could be assessed is higher overall.

Yougov wanted to know from the respondents whether they found their country’s military participation in the Second World War properly or wrong. The answers differed significantly: in the United States, Great Britain and France, all part of the Allies, approval. In contrast, rejection in the former axis powers of Germany and Italy predominated. However, only 70 percent of the respondents found the war participation wrong in Germany.

The views also diverge on the question of which country had the largest proportion of victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. The respondents in most countries attributed the dominant role to the United States, in the Great Britain the majority of the respondents saw their own country here.

The war in Europe ended with the surrender of the Third Reich on May 8, 1945, in the Pacific it continued until September 2. Two devastating atomic bombing on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki ultimately led to Japanese surrender. It is the first and only operations of nuclear weapons in the event of war. On the question of whether these were morally justified, the overarching answer with an average value of 63 percent was: no. 18 percent were justified. In the United States, the quota of supporters was the highest, with the lowest in Germany.

Incidentally, almost three quarters of the respondents across all countries are sure that there would be the use of nuclear weapons in a Third World War.

The majority of NATO again saw as a guarantee for peace in Europe after the end of World War II. 38 percent said that the defense alliance had contributed “a lot” to peacekeeping. Almost a quarter say the same about the European Union, which was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2012.

The AfD supporters, however, have a significantly lower proportion of peace in Europe. The supporters of the Greens rate it at the highest and see the EU as a guarantee of peace with NATO. The proportion of the United Nations (UN) and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) is assessed much less.

How big is the knowledge of the Second World War in Germany 80 years after its end? The majority of the respondents indicate to know something or even a lot about the Second World War and its context – the proportion of “frequent knowledge” (at their own) is significantly higher in men than in women.

With regard to the question of whether it is important to teach knowledge about the Second World War, approval predominates. 82 percent find it important that the topic is on the curriculum. The proportion is significantly lower among AfD supporters. 26 percent say here that they do not consider this to be very important or not important at all.

To the methodology: Yougov carried out surveys among the adult resident population of the examined countries in April 2025. In Germany, 2318 people were interviewed from April 4th to April 7th. In the UK, the sample was 1622, asked on April 3 and 4. In France, 1081 people were interviewed between April 4 and 14, in Italy between 4 and 16 April 1023 people and in Spain there were 1051 interviewed between April 4th and April 10th. In the United States, YouGov interviewed 1152 people between 10 and April 14.