Will Russia invade Ukraine? The US assumes that this could happen in the next few days. Other Western countries also assess the situation as “very, very serious”. Nevertheless, one wants to prevent a war in Europe.
There is a risk of escalation in the Ukraine conflict. The US government believes a Russian invasion of Ukraine before the end of the Winter Olympics in China on February 20 is possible. “We continue to see signs of Russian escalation, including new troops arriving at the Ukrainian border,” US President Joe Biden’s National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said at the White House on Friday. However, Sullivan made it clear that he was not saying that Putin had made a decision to invade.
“We are in a window where an invasion could begin at any time should (Russian President) Vladimir Putin decide to order it,” Sullivan said. “I’m not going to go into the details of our intelligence information. But I want to be clear that it (the invasion) could start during the Olympics, although there is much speculation that it would take place after the Olympics.” US citizens should leave Ukraine within the “next 24 to 48 hours”. If there is a Russian invasion, there will likely be airstrikes first and then a ground offensive, making it very difficult to leave the country, Sullivan said. “No one could rely on air, rail or land links after a military operation begins,” he said. In such a case, the US military would not evacuate Americans in Ukraine, Sullivan added. Biden had already urged American citizens on Thursday to leave Ukraine immediately.
Sullivan did not want to confirm information from a journalist from the US broadcaster PBS. On Friday, he wrote on Twitter, citing Western government officials, that Putin had made a decision to that effect and that the United States was expecting an invasion in the coming week.
The US armed forces are also relocating around 3,000 other soldiers to the NATO partner country Poland. Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin ordered this at the behest of President Joe Biden, the Department of Defense said in Washington on Friday.
Baerbock: “The situation is incredibly tense”
A Russian invasion of the neighboring country is now possible “at any time”, even during the Winter Olympics in Beijing, which will last until February 20, said US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during a visit to Australia. He contradicted assessments that Moscow could do without it during the Beijing Games.
The US government has threatened Russia with a “wave of condemnation from around the world” if it invades Ukraine. Russia’s power and influence would be weakened rather than strengthened in the long run, Sullivan said. Moscow will then be confronted with a “determined transatlantic community”. There will be “massive pressure” on the Russian economy, according to Sullivan.
“The situation is incredibly tense,” said Federal Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock (Greens) during a visit to Jordan with a view to Ukraine. “Russia has now also announced that it will withdraw its diplomats from Ukraine.” In military terms, there are “no signs of de-escalation”.
Crisis summit on the phone to Ukraine
Baerbock referred to new military exercises on the Ukrainian border previously announced by Moscow. According to the Defense Ministry in Moscow, 400 Russian soldiers took part in a “tactical exercise” for a “combat mission” in the Rostov border region on Friday.
According to Norwegian military intelligence, Russia has now made preparations for “everything from a small-scale invasion in the east to an invasion with a possible occupation of all or parts of Ukraine”. The decision rests with the Kremlin. “There is a real risk of a new armed conflict in Europe,” said NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg during a visit to Romania.
In view of the tensions, a kind of crisis summit should take place via telephone switchboard from 5 p.m. (CET), with participants: US President Joe Biden, French President Emmanuel Macron, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi, Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, NATO Chief Stoltenberg, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and EU Council President Charles Michel.
Countries call on citizens to leave Ukraine
In the switching conference, the western allies once again emphasized their determination to react to a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine with rapid and far-reaching sanctions. From German government circles it was said on Friday that the situation was assessed as “very, very serious” by the participants from the European Union and NATO. They want to continue trying to persuade Russia to de-escalate with diplomatic efforts. “We must prevent a war in Europe,” wrote government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit on Twitter.
In a recorded TV interview on Thursday, Biden called on US citizens to leave Ukraine “now”. Washington will under no circumstances send US troops to Ukraine, even to rescue US citizens in the event of a Russian invasion, he warned. This would start “a world war,” Biden said. “When Americans and Russians start shooting at each other, we’re in a whole different world.”
The Canadian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also called on its citizens to leave the country on its website: “If you are in Ukraine, you should leave.” Russian military action in Ukraine could disrupt travel across the country.
Great Britain has also called on its citizens to leave the country as soon as possible. “We urge British nationals in Ukraine to leave the country via commercial routes as long as they are available,” the Foreign Office said in London on Friday evening. The government also strongly advises against all trips to the ex-Soviet republic. In addition, other employees of the embassy would be withdrawn, it said. Earlier, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said during a visit to Moscow that Russian troop strength on the Ukrainian border would allow an immediate attack on the neighboring country.
Russia rejects attack plans
So far, Germany has only warned against unnecessary trips to Ukraine and urgently advises against going to areas in the east controlled by pro-Russian separatists and to the Crimean peninsula annexed by Russia. “Against the background of the current movements of Russian military units near the Ukrainian borders”, travelers should inform themselves about the security situation, it is also said.
According to Western sources, Russia has massed more than 100,000 soldiers on the border with Ukraine in recent months. In Ukraine, as in the West, this is fueling fears of a possible large-scale attack by Russia on the neighboring country. Russia rejects any plans of attack. At the same time, the Kremlin says it feels threatened by NATO.
A new round of talks on the Ukraine crisis in the so-called Normandy format in Berlin ended on Friday night after around ten hours without much progress. Foreign Minister Baerbock emphasized that at least another meeting between the negotiators of Ukraine and Russia mediated by Germany and France had been agreed in March. The meeting led to “absolutely no result,” said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, blaming Ukraine for it.
Against the background of tensions with the US, Russia and China have moved closer together. Shortly before the opening of the Winter Olympics, Putin met with Chinese head of state and party leader Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of last week. Putin was particularly looking for support in the Ukraine crisis. It was speculated that the Kremlin chief did not want to overshadow the Olympic Games in China by invading Ukraine, also out of consideration for host Xi.
Note: This article has been updated.
Source: Stern
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