Kashmir conflict: India and Pakistan on a dangerous confrontation course

The Kashmir region in western Himalaya has been a central dispute between the nuclear powers India and Pakistan for decades. The Indian attacks on destinations in Pakistan and in Pakistanically controlled part of Kashmir are considered a response to a terrorist attack in the unrestru region on April 22nd. Near the city of Pahalgam, 26 people – predominantly Indian tourists – were killed. The government in Neu-Delhi accuses Pakistan, Islamabad rejects this.

However, the territorial conflict goes back much further. After the attacks, concern is growing that the crisis could continue to escalate.

Why is the conflict so dangerous?

Kashmir is surrounded by three nuclear powers, and militant groups are active in the region. Pakistan threatened to retaliate after the nightly air strikes. This feeds the fear that the situation could get out of control and result in a war – with unforeseeable consequences for the entire region. China, which shares a controversial border with India in the east of the Kashmir region, could also be drawn into the conflict.

What are the background of the conflict?

The origins go back to the colonial period. In 1947 the British released the Indian subcontinent into independence, and in addition to the predominantly Hindu India, the new state was created Pakistan with a mainly Muslim population. Up to 15 million people were driven out or had to flee. The division continues to feed a bitter rivalry to this day. Since their independence, both countries have waged three wars against each other, two of them around cashmere. With its picturesque mountain lakes and snow -covered peaks, the region is a popular tourist destination.

What has happened in the past few weeks?

Among other things, India has suspended the Indus water contract, which regulates the water use of the Indus and its tributaries for both sides. In response to this, Pakistan said that it was reserved to declare the 1972 Shimla Agreement, which is an important basis for negotiations between the two countries. A withdrawal from the contract is seen as extremely dangerous.

The governments in Neu-Delhi and Islamabad are also under pressure to react with all hardness to hostility to the other side. The escalation has already progressed than in the crisis in 2019, writes South Asia expert Michael Kugelman.

What is the risk of nuclear war?

With his “No First Use” doctrine, India undertakes to do without a first assignment of nuclear weapons. According to the concept of massive retaliation, Neu-Delhi wants to answer first-time strikes against its own country with a devastating nuclear counter strike.

Pakistan, on the other hand, also reserves the first use of nuclear weapons – provided that the country’s existence is immediately threatened. The “Full Spectrum Deteterrence” doctrine serves primarily as a deterrent that is intended to prevent any form of aggression against the country.

The Sipri Peace Research Institute estimates in its 2024 yearbook that India has 172 nuclear warheads, Pakistan over 170.

The historical background

Historical background of the conflict is a problematic decision by the British colonial power. In 1846 she sold Kashmir to the Hindu ruler Gulab Singh despite the mostly Muslim population. When the British left the subcontinent in 1947 and the sovereigns had to be declared whether they wanted to join Islamic Pakistan or the mostly Hindu India, the Hindu-Maharadscha spoke out for India.

Several uprisings of the population against India based there could be ended by the ceasefire conveyed by the United Nations in 1949. As early as April 21, 1948, the UN Security Council decided to determine the final decision on the state belonging to Kaschmir by a referendum. The residents of Kaschmir are still waiting for this referendum to this day.

Who controls Kashmir?

The 222,236 square kilometer region with a total of around 20 million inhabitants is now dismembered and squeezed into a triangle of the nuclear powers Pakistan, India and China. Most of Kaschmir’s India has been subordinate since 1949, about a third is managed as “Azad Kashmir” (Free Kashmir) from Pakistan. A smaller part in the east is under China’s control. Pakistan also started a small area of ​​China in 1963. A ceasefire line marks the factual border between India and Pakistan.

Ribeal groups fight in the Indian part of Kashmir for independence from the mostly Hindu India – or for a merger with Pakistan. India accuses Pakistan of supporting these groups, which rejects Pakistan.

What happened in Kashmir in 2019?

In February, 40 people were killed in the most difficult attack on Indian security forces for 30 years. India blamed Pakistan for the attack and then attacked a terrorist camp of an Islamist organization Pakistan. Pakistan said that two Indian military aircraft had shot down. An Indian pilot was captured, but later released again as the “gesture of peace”. The location initially calmed down largely.

However, the tensions flickered again after India had withdrawn the partial autonomy in August to the Kashmir, which he controlled and divided the area. Two Union territories – Jammu and Kashmir as well as Ladakh – were created, which were more likely to be under the control of the central government in Neu -Delhi. Pakistan described the lifting of the partial autonomy as illegal. In the period that followed, there were increasing battles along the so -called control line. Thousands of additional Indian soldiers were sent to the Kashmir Valley to prevent protests.

In 2021, the rival states agreed to respect all bilateral agreements and hire combat acts. However, the increased militarization of the Indian part of Kashmir is criticized by human rights organizations. They also accuse India of wanting to control the region with comprehensive repression.

What role do other countries play in this conflict?

How far influential powers such as the USA or China can affect India and Pakistan to prevent an armed conflict is unclear. India is an important defense partner of the USA, while Washington Pakistan is one of his non-Nato allies. In the past, international actors such as the United States have played an important role to defuse crises in South Asia, writes “Foreign Affairs”. However, the world is currently tired of the Indian-Pakistani arguments. “The withdrawal of the NATO troops from Afghanistan has reduced the US’s interest to Pakistan.”