Is Putin waiting for the end of the Winter Olympics before invading Ukraine? The US government considers an invasion before that to be possible. She urges Americans to leave Ukraine.
The US government believes a Russian invasion of Ukraine is possible before the end of the Winter Olympics in China on Sunday next week.
“We are in a window where an invasion could begin at any time should (Russian President) Vladimir Putin decide to order it,” National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said at the White House on Friday. “I will not comment on the details of our intelligence information. But I want to be clear that it (the invasion) could start during the Olympics, although there is a lot of speculation that it would not happen until after the Olympics.”
Against the background of tensions with the US, Russia and China have moved closer together. Shortly before the opening of the Winter Olympics, Putin met with Chinese head of state and party leader Xi Jinping in Beijing at the end of last week. Putin was particularly looking for support in the Ukraine crisis. It was speculated that the Kremlin chief did not want to overshadow the Olympic Games in China by invading Ukraine, also out of consideration for host Xi.
Sullivan: “We’re seeing signs”
Sullivan stressed that the US government had no information that Putin had already made a final decision to invade. But US President Joe Biden’s national security adviser also said: “We continue to see signs of Russian escalation, including new troops arriving at the Ukrainian border.” A possible attack could take various forms, including an advance on the capital Kiev.
Sullivan did not want to confirm information from a journalist from the US broadcaster PBS. On Friday, he wrote on Twitter, citing Western government officials, that Putin had made a decision to that effect and that the United States was expecting an invasion in the coming week.
Sullivan urged American citizens in Ukraine to leave the country “as soon as possible”. “We don’t know exactly what will happen, but the risk is high enough now,” he said. “All Americans in Ukraine should leave the country as soon as possible – and certainly within 24 to 48 hours.” Great Britain, Denmark, Latvia and Estonia also called on their respective citizens to leave Ukraine on Friday.
If there is a Russian invasion, there will likely be airstrikes first and then a ground offensive, making it very difficult to leave the country, Sullivan said. “Nobody could rely on air, rail or land connections after a military operation begins,” he said. In such a case, the US military would not evacuate Americans in Ukraine, Sullivan added. Biden had already urged American citizens on Thursday to leave Ukraine immediately.
US threatens Russia in case of invasion
Sullivan threatened Russia with a “wave of condemnation from around the world” if it invaded Ukraine. Russia’s power and influence would be weakened rather than strengthened in the long run, Sullivan said. Moscow will then be confronted with a “determined transatlantic community”. There will be “massive pressure” on the Russian economy.
US President Biden had exchanged views with Western allies, including Chancellor Olaf Scholz, on Friday before Sullivan’s appearance. The White House said the deliberations via video conference lasted almost 80 minutes. The White House previously said the call was to address “common concerns about Russia’s continued military build-up” on the Ukrainian border. The aim is to continue to exchange views on the “coordination of diplomacy and deterrence”.
Sanctions in case of invasion
According to information from German government circles, the Western allies of the switch once again emphasized their determination to react to a possible Russian invasion of Ukraine with rapid and far-reaching sanctions. In Berlin it was then said that the situation was assessed by the participants from the European Union and NATO as “very, very serious”. “All diplomatic efforts are aimed at persuading Moscow to de-escalate,” wrote government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit on Twitter. “It is important to prevent a war in Europe.”
In addition to Biden and Scholz, there were EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, EU Council President Charles Michel, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, France’s Head of State Emmanuel Macron, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda, Romanian President Klaus Iohannis and Italy’s Prime Minister Mario Draghi and Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau were invited to the switch. After the talks, France announced that President Macron would speak again with his Russian colleague Vladimir Putin on Saturday. The two had recently spoken on the phone several times. Macron traveled to Moscow for talks on Monday.
Russian Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov spoke to his US colleague Mark Milley on Friday. “Current issues of international security” were discussed, according to the Defense Ministry in Moscow in the evening.
Source: Stern
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