Ukraine War: Do Putin and Selenskyj meet for the summit in Istanbul?

For Chancellor Friedrich Merz, it is the “largest diplomatic initiative of the past few months” that was started in Kiev. There was talk of a “historical” moment in the garden of the Marienpalast together with the French President Emmanuel Macron, Great Britain Prime Minister Keir Starmer as well as the Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk and the Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj presented a kind of timetable to end the Russian attacking war that had been raging for more than three years: Waffenruhe of 30 days from Monday, then negotiations and in the end hopefully some a solution.

What would become of the ceasefire was still unclear on Sunday evening. But it looks like next Thursday the first meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Selenskyj since the Russian invasion more than three years ago.

Putin drummed up journalists in the middle of the night of Sunday to submit a counter offer to that of Selenskyj and his four most important European allies proposed ceasefire: direct negotiations between Moscow and Kiev in Istanbul. Putin suggested that the talks should begin this Thursday (May 15th) without priority. The reaction of Selenskyj and the Europeans was initially behavior. In the evening, however, the Ukrainian president surprisingly said on the platform X: “I will wait for Putin in Turkey on Thursday, personally.”

Will Selenskyj travel to Istanbul without ceasefire?

That is not safe. Selenskyj continued to pound on X on a break. “It makes no sense to continue killing.” However, he did not explicitly named her as a condition.

Shortly before Selenskyj’s consent, US President Donald Trump asked the Ukrainian head of state to agree to the resumption of direct peace talks in Turkey proposed by Putin. Only then would Kiev know, the European partners and the USA know what they are and could be accordingly, Trump wrote on his online language tube Truth Social.

Has Trump hit Putin’s side again?

You can’t say that. Because the Republican also expressed doubts that Putin wanted to conclude a peace agreement. This is too busy “celebrating the victory in World War II”. He alluded to the parade for the day of victory over Nazi Germany on Friday.

What is the basis for the conversations?

That is still unclear. Putin said there shouldn’t be any preconditions. Later, however, his foreign policy advisor Juri Uschakow said that Russia had a basic structure of demands. On the one hand, the results of the previous round of negotiation from 2022 – also in Istanbul – should be taken into account, and on the other hand, developments on the front since then.

What was negotiated in Istanbul in 2022?

In the draft of an agreement at the time, Ukraine should do without NATO accession. The signing finally failed because Russia wanted to be a guarantee for the security of Ukraine, but himself called for a veto law against the intervention of other countries such as the United States or Great Britain. This would make Ukraine completely dependent on good will in the Kremlin.

How does Putin feel about the proposed ceasefire?

He did not explicitly commented on this. The spokeswoman for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Maria Sacharova, said later that it must first be talked about the causes of the conflict, then about a ceasefire. The denial of a previous fire break should have two reasons: firstly, Putin wants to demonstrate strength and therefore do not accept ultimatum. Second, Moscow sees himself an advantage on the battlefield.

What did the Europeans say about Putin’s offer?

In the first reactions on Sunday morning, they saw Putin’s offer as a positive sign, but did not want to move away from their demand for a ceasefire: “First the weapons have to be silent, then conversations can begin,” said Merz. Macron commented similarly. In the evening there was initially no response to Selenskyj’s commitment.

What happens if the weapons are not silent on Monday?

It is completely unclear whether the Europeans then make their threats true and tighten the sanctions against Russia despite the discussion of Selenskyj for Thursday. Until the evening there was no statement by the four heads of state and government who were in Kiev on Saturday.

Which EU sanctions against Russia would still be possible?

Since the beginning of the war of aging Moscow against Ukraine, the EU has launched 16 sanction packages against Russia. They include travel restrictions, freezing assets and a number of import and export restrictions, for example for Russian energy sources such as coal and oil. A 17th sanction package is currently being prepared. However, the new punitive measures in the event of non -compliance with the ceasefire should go beyond.

Have you already given details?

It should be about the energy and banking sector. However, details are still unclear. Negotiations within the EU are likely to be difficult because the Member States in many sectors have national interests, especially when it comes to the energy sector. It is unlikely that the EU will go to the frozen Russian assets in the Member States.