Tax estimate: Klingbeil’s construction sites: two households, a mission

It is his ninth day in office, Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil was already in Paris, in Kiel, in Brussels, at two party parliament and has also re -sorted the management items of his SPD. But now he has to really dive into the numbers for the first time: the tax estimate, one of the most important appointments in the financial policy calendar, is a test for the Vice Chancellor, who has so far emerged in his career with completely different topics than finances.

Klingbeil knows that, in particular, he, the finance newcomer, is not allowed to lose time with a long familiarization. Too many of the most important black and red projects to boost the weak economy are in his hands. The household is too important. The 47-year-old has already promised “he wanted to get started with minute one”. In the beginning, he will first use the expertise of his ministry. Ex-Minister Jörg Kukies and the department heads have left the new preparatory work in the desk drawer.

These are mammoth tasks:

Household I: In June in the cabinet

The federal government has been working with a preliminary housekeeping for almost five months. This works largely smoothly, but the scope for new projects from the coalition agreement is limited. Therefore, the time in the household 2025. On June 25th, Klingbeil wants to bring it through the cabinet, and also advise in the Bundestag for the first time before the summer break. The decision is planned for September.

This is an extremely ambitious plan. According to the tax estimate, his budget experts know what income they can expect. But then the actual negotiation begins: the ministers will want to profile themselves, especially at the beginning of the legislature. Klingbeil can start practicing the no saga – because despite the historical debt opportunities gap holes in the budget and he will have to paint together.

Household II: The real test test

Klingbeil also wants to set up his second household before the summer break – and it should be much more difficult. The budget for 2026 should be decided by the end of the year. The finance minister must prove that he does not require his predecessor’s preparatory work. And the real distribution fights are pending.

Because a financing reservation is hovers over all projects from the coalition agreement. That means: you already know that there is no money for all all. Klingbeil will have to negotiate with his cabinet colleagues, which is financed priority and what may fall down at the back.

Why is there a lack of money at all, although the federal government has just softened the debt brake for defense spending and has approved a 500 billion heavy debt pot for infrastructure? This has to do with a requirement that the Greens have negotiated: the infrastructure billions may only be used for additional investments. Klingbeil can therefore be involved in the role of the bearer of bad news in good time.

Investments: How does the special fund get on the street?

On the first day in office, the SPD politician promised to be “Minister of Investment”. That could still catch up with him, because there are problems with the billions from the special infrastructure. The associated law should also be advised in the Bundestag from June. However, according to experts, Germany threatens to violate the EU’s debt specifications, the so-called stability and growth pact.

During the reform of these rules two years ago, Germany had insisted on strictly, now Klingbeil has to hope for accommodation from Brussels. His European counterparts would like the German path, the finance minister reported on his first trip to Brussels. Somehow it will work, sounds through – but how? Even then, the challenge remains that the funds actually drain off. This was always problematic for programs by the federal government.

Growth impulses: The economy is waiting for the boost

“My claim is that we bring Germany back to growth,” says Klingbeil. Making the lame economy briskly is one of the most urgent tasks. Before the summer, the Ministry of Finance is likely to have draft laws to reduce energy prices and for better depreciation rules for companies. According to the coalition agreement, temporary depreciation of 30 percent on equipment investments should be “investment booster”.

For other things, on the other hand, Klingbeil still has to develop the scope in the budget – especially for a reduction in corporate taxation planned from 2028 and an income tax reform. When tax incentives for pensioners who work longer are also open.

Mission 2029: The actual goal

The fact that Lars Klingbeil has become finance minister has more to do with the strategic importance of the house than with financial policy. Under him, the Ministry is not only the house of money, but a vice -chancellery.

After the SPD’s debacle in the Bundestag election in February, the party leader had this position firmly in view. To do this, he put on a power -political march that does not like everyone in his party. With his personnel decisions, Klingbeil has taken out some loan: he surrounded by confidants, at the party leadership, in the parliamentary group and also in the Ministry of Finance. He sets the tone. Now the 47-year-old has to justify that it is right for the SPD to put everything on his card.

It is clear, even if nobody says that Klingbeil is already aligning his environment on one thing: the Chancellor candidacy 2029. Former Chancellor Olaf Scholz has already proven that the Ministry of Finance can be a springboard for it. And so much criticism of Klingbeil in the SPD, his tactic seems to be so successful outside the bubble. In the ranking of the Insa Institute for the “Bild” newspaper, the Minister of Finance has already risen to the second most popular politician behind Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.