Defense spending: Merz brakes debate about military spending

Chancellor Friedrich Merz has tried to slow down the debate about the proportion of defense spending on economic strength. “This discussion about GDP percentages is an auxiliary structure to have guidelines in which direction we go with the armament of the armed forces,” said Merz in the ZDF talk program “Maybrit Illner”.

Instead, it should be more about the concrete military skills: “We have to develop the ability to defend the European continent out of our own.” On the request of US President Donald Trump that NATO countries should issue five percent of their gross domestic product (GDP), Merz did not go into, not even on the latest statements by his Foreign Minister Johann WadePhul (CDU).

WadePhul had previously made a public behind Trump’s demand at a NATO meeting in Turkey. The result of the US president’s assessment that this was necessary, he said after he had hit his US colleague Marco Rubio there for the first time since taking office and also addressed the current threats from Russia.

Klingbeil and Pistorius reserved

The coalition partner SPD was obviously surprised by the clear statements of the Foreign Minister – and reacted with reluctantly to the WadePhul’s statement.

SPD boss Lars Klingbeil emphasized in Berlin that the coalition agreement had agreed that one would adhere to the NATO capacity goals. According to information from alliance circles, the rate of 3.5 percent derives from it. Higher infrastructure expenditure has already agreed. The decision about the skill goals is made at the NATO summit. “And then Germany will adhere to this appointment,” said the new finance minister. He advised everyone in the coalition to orientate themselves on the coalition agreement.

Defense Minister Boris Pistorius (SPD) said: “The decisive factor is the percentage. It is crucial that the NATO capacity goals, which are then defined, are fulfilled quickly, comprehensively and in time.” Of course, over three percent or more will be talked in the end. Incidentally, WadePhul also knew: “The establishment of the Defense budget is in STECHLAT 14, so in my house.”

The NATO goal for defense expenditure currently provides annual expenditure of at least two percent of gross domestic product. Germany narrowly reached it in 2024 – states such as Italy, Spain, Belgium and Luxembourg were still far from until the end.

Five percent of defense – what would Germany cost?

According to Merz, each percentage point would currently mean more than an increase of 45 billion euros in defense spending. At five percent, expenditure of 225 billion euros per year would currently be necessary. This would be a huge effort – even if significantly more expenses for militarily usable infrastructure can be included in the future. To classify: The total expenditure of the federal budget was around 466 billion euros last year.

How such a sum should be achieved is completely unclear, since there is not even a budget for the current year due to the early Bundestag election. The year 2032 is possible as a possible period for the fulfillment of a new goal for defense spending. Secret services assume that Russia should be able to start another war in Europe at the latest in the next decade.

All just a question of definition?

When fulfilling a higher NATO goal, the new federal government could help that the definition of defense spending could also be expanded. NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte suggests that classic defense spending of 3.5 percent of gross domestic product could be sufficient, provided that 1.5 percent of the economic output for militarily usable infrastructure is also spent. This could be investments in railway lines, bridges or ports.

Germany is “determined to make this alliance stronger. We have to stand closely together, especially in this time of crisis,” said WadePhul in the Turkish seaside resort of Belek near Antalya. After changing the constitution, one could spend on defense what is necessary. The federal government fully supports the Rutte proposal.

Where the money could come from

In Germany, in spring-before the new black and red coalition was formed-it was decided to set up a special pot that weighs up to 500 billion euros, with which the repair is to be tackled. With the relief of the debt brake for defense spending at the same time, there is also at least one basis for a significantly higher GDP quota.

How much is NATO dependent on Trump?

NATO wants to prevent the United States from withdrawing from the transatlantic defense alliance under the Trump, which is considered unpredictable. Because without the nuclear protective shield of the United States and without the conventional military skills of the greatest ally, the alliance is only considered to be to be defended to a limited extent.

In his first term, Trump had repeatedly criticized the defenses of the European Allies inadequate. He even threatened to exit the NATO of the United States several times. Trump now wants his five percent goal in June at the NATO summit in the Hague.