Merz in Lithuania: Where the Chancellor is still greeted with flags

Hundreds of residents came to the cathedral square, men, women, children. No grille that separates them from the German soldiers, no rain that could pass them away. Parts of the 10th Panzer Division have set up, the army music orchestra is marched. And all around people who swing flags, applauded the speeches, and later, when the Bundeswehr helicopters ratted deep across the pitch, some of them even cheer.

As a chancellor, he did not yet have such a reception. Friedrich Merz has to fly to Vilnius for so much unadorned enthusiasm.

All states could rely on “that we defend every inch of their territory,” said the Chancellor during his last visit to Lithuania. At that time it was called Olaf Scholz exactly a year ago. His successor has now traveled to Lithuania again, and again he assures: “Dear Lithuanians, they can rely on us, they can rely on Germany.”

This is not a pure politeness phrase, because for Merz this day marks a historical date. This Thursday he solemnly put the German brigade “Lithuania” into service with a installation appeal. There are only 400 German soldiers there, but at the latest there should be 5000- equipped with Leopard and Puma tanks and everything it takes to deter Russia. This will still require some effort. But as Merz said in his speech: “Freedom is not for nothing” – which sounded a little better in English: “Freedom is not for free.”

The operation is considered a highly complex, the greatest challenge in the history of the Bundeswehr. That is why not only the Chancellor came, he also brought Defense Minister Boris Pistorius.

The Germans are welcome. To celebrate the day, the lettering “lit ❤️ Deu” flashes in the destination display at the regular buses in the center of Vilnius. More and more students learned German, it is said that the number of city twinning had also increased. Since the beginning of the Ukraine War, the lettering has been visible from a high-rise building in the city center: “Putin, the Hague is waiting for you”-meant the war criminal tribunal there.

Lithuania has long been about the Russian president, his possible next goals. The almost three million inhabitants see themselves in the first line of defense to fear that they are the next victim of Russian aggression. The reasons for this are geographical nature. The capital is less than 50 kilometers from the border with Belarus – Russia’s most important ally.

The only land connection to the West, the NATO partner Poland and the hopefully never needed replenishment is the Suwalki gap, the 70 kilometer wide gap between the Russian exclave Kaliningrad and just Belarus. A large maneuver takes place there in autumn, the raid on the Balties is simulated, as Lithuania President Gitanas Nauseda predicts. Provocations can be expected.

The biggest of the small balties thus has a key role in NATO’s east strategy. In case of doubt, there was no Russian attack with the small 1300 -strong troop, which has been stationed in Lithuania under the name “Enhanced Forward Presence” since 2017. The multinational group is also under German leadership. At the latest since the invasion of Ukraine, nobody has had a greater deterrent from this presence.

A permanently stationed German brigade with 5000 soldiers is another announcement. Lithuania’s president had therefore warned more pace last May: “We cannot afford to waste the luxury for a minute.”

But that would have to stand for that. The occurrence command with around 20 people who was sent last April has now grown into a installation staff with around 400 soldiers. It should be 500 by the end of the year. That does not sound like the Scholz once propagated by Scholz. Or straight. After all, there should be 2000 Bundeswehr soldiers next year.

This also means that it would be far from the agreed 5000, which, according to the plan, should be stationed at the Rukla and Rūdninkai locations from the end of 2027. The soldiers should also stand there permanently – not for only six months, but for three years of operation.

The Bundeswehr relies on voluntariness. Does Pistorius find enough under his own soldiers who voluntarily move to Lithuania for three years – including spouses, children and pets? The task is therefore also a test for an at least as much challenge that lies ahead of the minister: the introduction of his new military service, which, according to the previously known plans, also relies on voluntariness.

For Merz, the day trip after his inaugural visits in Warsaw and Kiev is already the third trip to Eastern Europe in his young chancellorship. You can understand that as a symbol. That is why it was so important to him to officially launch the German Brigade before the NATO summit at the end of June. The signal: we deliver. What do you do?

This message expressly also applies to the largest partner on the other side of the Atlantic. He’s still a partner? Merz has now telephoned with the US President several times. The concern that the USA could steal responsibility for Ukraine under Trump under Trump has almost increased to panic since the unfortunate conversation from Monday.

What does that mean for peace, at least for an early armistice? “It is a process that has just started and will take many weeks, maybe months,” says Merz in Vilnius. “Let’s not make ourselves an illusion: there is no quick solution.” It is not entirely clear to whom the sentence was coined, Putin or Trump. It does fit both.