Location at an overview: Merz and Selenskyj: The glimmer of hope has evaporated

When Chancellor Friedrich Merz met Ukrainian President Wolodymyr Selenskyj in Kiev just four days after taking office, the hopes for a real negotiation process to end the war were still great. If the two are again in Berlin almost three weeks later, there is almost nothing left of it.

The thin thread of conversation between Russia and Ukraine is demolished. The Russian air strikes are more violent than ever. And US President Donald Trump is in the process of leaving Europeans alone with the problem.

Visiting after long speculation confirmed

Several media had reported on the planned visit to Selenskyjs in Berlin in the past few days, although such trips are usually kept secret until the end for security reasons. There was only an official confirmation a few hours beforehand. “The visit will be about the German support of Ukraine and the efforts for an armistice,” said government spokesman Stefan Kornelius in the morning.

It is already the fourth visit to Selenskyj in Berlin since the Russian invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago. It takes place in an extremely difficult situation – and falls together with the inaugural visit by Foreign Minister Johann WadePhul in Washington.

Merz ‘chief diplomat wants to work at his current meeting with US colleague Marco Rubio for a closing with the USA in dealing with Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin. “So that Putin finally gets the negotiating table so that Russia finally gets into serious negotiations, we have to maintain the pressure,” said the CDU politician before departure to Washington. “We Europeans will continue to attract the sanction screws, and the US congress is also ready for more sanctions.”

Merz makes dark forecasts

In the past few days, Merz gave the impression that he had completely abandoned the belief in a solution at the negotiating table. As a rule, wars came to an end through economic or military exhaustion, one of the two sides or on both sides, he said on Tuesday when he visited Finland. “We are obviously far from that in this war. That’s why I expect that we may have to be in a long time.”

Disillusionment over the diplomatic efforts is also the reason why Merz made the abolition of the range limitation public for the use of German weapons in the Ukraine War at the beginning of the week. He thus supported Ukrainian military strikes against positions on Russian territory in order to signal the Russian President Putin that the solidarity of Europeans with Ukraine is unbroken.

From the Greens and also from the Union, demands for the delivery of the Taurus marching aircraft with a range of 500 kilometers come again. Merz was recently very reserved – he actually no longer wants to talk about the topic in public.

The military situation: Ukraine lack weapons

Ukraine has long been on the defensive; But even after more than three years of the war of attack, Russia was unable to break the resistance of the Ukrainians. In order to get into the forehand, the Ukrainian army would need powerful weapons systems to smash Russian command offices and supply routes behind the front.

In his video message, Selenskyj announced that it would further expand the armaments industry. Russia must feel that all of its misdeeds against Ukraine are answered. “Key elements (for this) are attack drones, interceptors, hunters, marching aircraft and Ukrainian ballistic rockets. We have to produce everything,” he said.

So far, this has not been more than business games, even if Selenskyj said that the government is preparing investment contracts with European partners to move further military production into the country.

Persistent resistance of Ukraine

Ukraine has already developed its drones. This allows it to damage energy systems and military objects in Russia or disrupt civil air traffic. However, the sovereignty of air continues with Russia, as the difficult nightly bombing of the night from last weekend.

Ukrainian air defense has been reinforced – especially with German help. But the Russian drone swarms are greater, there is hardly a defense against sliding bombs and ballistic rockets. There is a lack of weapon systems and anti -aircraft ammunition.

The Ukrainian lack of soldiers clearly shows itself in fighting on the ground. In the Donbass in the east, the defenders provide resistance. The Russian attackers move step by step, even if they suffer large losses of soldiers and technology. For the summer, Moscow pulls troops together for further offensive. An extension of the front also threatens because Russia wants to conquer a buffer zone along its border. Both sides are in a war of wear with an uncertain outcome.

Peace efforts? Trump’s quick advance failed

The plan of US President Trump when he took office, with his – as he assessed it – to achieve good wire to Putin at the end of the war. He did not put pressure on him, but on the previously allied Ukraine. But despite several top calls and preparation meetings, there was nothing more than a direct Ukrainian-Russian conversation in Istanbul. Except for a prisoner exchange, it brought no result.

Kyiv accepted Trump’s proposal for a 30-day ceasefire as an introduction to negotiations. Moscow continues to reject this and despite all the assertions of peace will ultimately remain with maximum demands: Ukraine should be disarmed and practically brought back under Russian control.

In view of Trump’s fluctuating attitude, the European countries are of greater importance to ensure security on their own continent. In addition to the promise of continuing military support, another sanction package will soon follow. So far, Russia has shown itself unaffected by punitive measures.

Trump’s increasing dissatisfaction has also wiped off the Russian leadership. When the US President said after massive Russian bombing of Ukrainian cities at the weekend that Putin had “gone crazy”, the Kremlin saw this as a sign of “emotional overload” because of the ongoing negotiations.