Poland: This is the right -wing conservative election winner Karol Nawrocki

The victory of the right -wing conservative Karol Nawrocki in the presidential election in Poland is not only bad news for Prime Minister Donald Tusk, but also for Brussels, Berlin and Kiev. Poland moves back to the right. And the new president can stop with his veto law Tusk to undo the damage to democracy, which has left eight years of acting right-wing conservative PIS government.

The politically inexperienced 42-year-old historian Nawrocki owes his ascent to the mighty PiS boss Jaroslaw Kaczynski, an arch enemy of Tusk. The goal for the first months of Nawrocki’s term is clear: to bring the Tusk government to fall. As early as the day after the election, it munkin Polish media that the head of government, which has become under trouble, will ask the question of trust this week. The reform projects in his center-left coalition had with Nawrocki’s victory “fell like a house of cards”. New elections are not excluded.

This could mean that in the EU and NATO country Poland threatens a time of confusion and political tribes. In addition, the outcome of the election in the population strongest, economically and militarily significant country in the region is a sign that rights and populist forces in this part of Europe are on the rise.

In centralistic Poland, the president has significantly more power than in Germany. He is allowed to have a say in the lines of foreign policy, is commander -in -chief of the armed forces and can stop laws decided by Parliament with his veto law. So he cannot aggregate, but governance is considerably more difficult.

This abundance of power is now given a man, whom the Warsaw Politicalist Antoni Dudek gives a “classic example of an authoritarian personality”. Nawrocki most recently headed the Institute for National Memory (IPN), which roughly corresponds to the now dissolved authority for Stasi documents.

Born in Gdansk, he comes from a simple background, was amateur boxers in his youth and worked as a bouncer in a luxury hotel. He has contacts in the red light milieu and the hooligan scene. In 2009 he was also involved in a mass brawl by football fans. In the election campaign, Nawrocki brated that he had a granted approval in Poland to wear a firearm.

The man is considered not squeamish. He could torpedo everything that the pro -European head of government Tusk is doing with hard gait to restore the rule of law and democratic principles in his country.

The PIS, whose name Prawo I Sprawiedliwosc means “law and justice”, ruled Poland from 2015 to 2023. During this time, she restricted the freedom of media and rebuilt the Justiwesen. Among other things, she brought a body to her political control, which decides on the occupation of judge positions. The EU Commission saw this a violation of the separation of powers and in the end even blocked funding in billions.

In the meantime, the funds have been released again, but only because Tusk Brussels assured that the Judicial reforms have assured the judicial reforms since December 2023. But this process has not yet been really progressed. The reason: the previous President Andrzej Duda, who comes from the ranks of the PIS, blocked the crucial laws with his veto. And Tusk’s government does not have the required majority of 60 percent in parliament to abolish the presidential veto. If Nawrocki continues this blockade policy, Poland does not get off the spot. The tensions with the EU could increase again.

The German-Polish relationship is probably also a stress test. The signs of relaxation with the inaugural visit by Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) in Warsaw and the journey together from Merz and Tusk to Kiev

Nawrocki relied on anti -German tones in the election campaign. “Why should we give the command of the Polish armed forces to Brussels if Ursula von der Leyen didn’t even have the Bundeswehr under control?” He asked in the election campaign – he liked his audience. And he praised to fight for world war repairs from the first day of his presidency. At the time, the PIS government had asked for more than 1.3 trillion euros in compensation from Germany for the damage suffered in World War II and thus thoroughly broken down the relationship with Berlin.

Ukraine is likely to pursue the focus of Nawrocki in foreign and defense policy. Poland is one of the most important allies of the Ukraine attacked by Russia. It has taken up a large number of refugees from there and serves as a hub for the military aid of the West for Kiev. This line has so far been persecuted by Prime Minister Tusk and President Duda, even if both come from hostile political camps.

However, Nawrocki made a concession on the right -wing extremist Slawomir Mentzen in the election campaign, which was eliminated in the first round with 15 percent of the votes. He signed its eight-point plan and undertook, among other things, not to sign a law that ratifies the accession of Ukraine to NATO. The fact that Ukraine does not enter the military alliance is a request from the Kremlin – and a clear deviation from the previous Polish state bundle.