Tough but fair: Ukraine on the brink: Is Germany too fond of Putin?

TV review

The countdown to the Russia-Ukraine crisis is on, and a Russian invasion could start as early as tomorrow, Wednesday – at least that’s what US intelligence officials have warned. Around 140,000 combat-ready Russian soldiers are apparently stationed on the borders with Ukraine. Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) was in Kiev on Monday and is flying to Moscow today. Pendulum diplomacy as a permanent exercise. It is precisely in this intermediate phase that Frank Plasberg poses the question of the German role in this conflict: “The main thing is peaceful and warm: Does Germany shy away from a clear edge against Putin?” That smacks of tough Chancellor scolding, of mockery “Scholz speaking”, after complaints about a lack of German courage. And after passionate denials. But the late evening round at “Hard but fair” delivers almost none of that. Rather, it will be a discussion that fits the situation: very serious for long stretches.

Frank Plasberg’s guests

On paper, Michael Roth would be something like the appointed defender of his fellow party member Scholz in this circle. But the talk lasts quite a while before the foreign politician is really challenged in this role for the first time.

Is it like Voldemort?

Why doesn’t the chancellor state that if the worst comes to the worst, Nord Stream 2 will be a thing of the past if Putin launches an invasion of Ukraine? Is this like Harry Potter’s Lord Voldemort Who Must Not Be Named? Roth resolutely places himself in front of the chancellor. “The diplomatic turbo is in full swing”. details on this “turbo” and Nord Stream 2, but he does not want to go through it, even at Plasberg’s urging. Only that much: “If you put two and two together (…), then it should be clear that if the worst comes to the worst, this project is also on the table.” In fact, it should be obvious. Longer.

The CDU foreign politician Norbert Röttgen sees a problem with the pipeline that goes deeper: “The German special route Nord Stream 2” have aroused distrust of Germany in other countries. Former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder (SPD) is also helping through political lobbying “contribution”that there are doubts. Röttgen has been an opponent of this pipeline for years, unlike longtime Chancellor Angela Merkel. He analyzes that the project through the Baltic Sea was primarily intended by Russia as a kind of bypass to bypass the Ukraine for gas transport. Merkel had tried to limit these consequences through countless talks.

The situation today: When it comes to energy supply – as the guests reminded us more than once this evening – Germany has become dependent on itself, for which it has to pay. Literally.

Ex-Chancellor as a penalty for Scholz

The fear of endlessly rising energy prices determines the view of Ukraine and Russia for many in the country. A core message of the evening at Plasberg: often beyond this question, interest stops.

Scholz’ start in government comes at a dark, threatening time. And his role is not made easier by the games of his pre-predecessor. Schröder has positions at Nord Stream, at the energy company Rosneft, and soon he will also be a member of the supervisory board of the state-owned company Gazprom. That doesn’t go over well with many. Not in Germany and certainly not with the partners. A few weeks ago, the ex-Chancellor warned Ukraine that “saber rattling” set – Ukraine! His party colleague Michael Roth makes it clear: “I don’t share Gerhard Schröder’s view at all. It also harms the mediation efforts of our Chancellor.”

“I was stunned for a moment”

Complaints about the reluctance of the German head of government had meanwhile almost become classic headlines in many media. But a lot has happened lately. Scholz’ interview with CNN and his most recent signals in Kiev brought clarity that could only be assumed with good will for weeks. In any case, the Zeit journalist Mariam Lau currently takes the head of government as “a little more offensive” true. WDR reporter Golod is not enough. Golod on the debate about the escalation on the Ukrainian border: “The Federal President expresses himself more clearly on this topic than the Federal Chancellor. I was stunned for a moment.” In his speech after the re-election on Sunday, Frank-Walter Steinmeier appealed to Vladimir Putin: “Untie the noose around Ukraine’s neck!” Gold awaits “such clear statements from the federal government”.

Lau finds the attitude of some citizens, whose sympathy for Ukraine is limited to the reference to high energy prices and the sentence “What do I care about Ukraine?” the attitude determines, simply only “shocking”. She gets downright emotional when it comes to the people of Ukraine: “These are my neighbors!” They would have paid a high price in 2014 when they turned their attention to Europe. “They are doing what constitutes the European security order: namely exercising their right to self-determination.” It will remain one of the few livelier moments of the talk.

Question of all questions: What’s on Putin’s mind?

What happens now at this source of fire in the middle of Europe? Is an escalation in Ukraine possibly on the agenda for tomorrow, Wednesday, as the CIA recently predicted? Secret services shouldn’t be overrated, emphasizes GAP expert Sarah Pagung, but she considers a dramatic escalation to be quite likely given the governments that have recalled their people from Ukraine in recent days.

And so the group kept revolving around Putin and the question of what might be going on in the head of the man with the cool eyes: his doubts about the pursuit of freedom, his fear of self-confident citizens, his goals. Chancellor Scholz makes up his own mind in Moscow.

Prevent the great tragedy

He can hardly see the cards in which direction those mentioned by Roth “mediation efforts” could go into concrete terms during the conversation today. The fact that Ukraine’s NATO membership is being put on hold could be one of these signals. Yesterday, that was already a conceivable possibility – however it should be designed in detail.

Perhaps Scholz’s silence in these weeks is just consistent tactical discipline. The thought “Imagine there is no war after all” was only cautiously toasted on this often very sober evening at Frank Plasberg’s; but he gave the round its own appeal. The great tragedy can perhaps still be prevented. At the end of such a process, Scholz’s role would be talked about differently.