The corona numbers have been falling for a few days, and now there is also official confirmation from Federal Minister of Health Karl Lauterbach. He sees the peak of the omicron wave reached and wants to initiate concrete easing.
Federal Health Minister Karl Lauterbach sees the week-long sharp increase in the number of corona infections in Germany as broken. “The peak of the omicron wave has passed – pretty much exactly on the day I predicted a month ago,” the SPD politician told the “Bild” newspaper on Tuesday. Therefore, “moderate easing” of corona restrictions is now possible, he explained with a view to the consultations between Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD) and the Prime Minister this Wednesday.
Karl Lauterbach: “The measures were spot on”
According to the calculations of a scientific model, Lauterbach had predicted the peak of the omicron wave for mid-February. That shows how well this model works. “The measures were right,” he said of the previous everyday requirements. “We were able to significantly reduce the number of deaths and, compared to other countries, got through this omicron wave really well. One should acknowledge that something worked.”
The figures from the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) also confirm the trend. For the third day in a row, the nationwide seven-day incidence has fallen. The RKI gave the value of new infections per 100,000 inhabitants and week on Tuesday morning as 1437.5 (previous day: 1459.8; previous month: 497.1).
“We need a week to be able to say for sure whether the wave is receding,” said Hajo Zeeb from the Leibniz Institute for Prevention Research and Epidemiology (Bremen) the editorial network Germany on Tuesday. “We saw in Denmark, for example, that the numbers went up significantly again after a short break.” He also pointed out that when the peak of the wave was reached, only half was over. “Then there will be many more cases and the health system will remain heavily burdened,” says Zeeb.
Intensive care physicians also see a positive trend
According to intensive care physician Christian Karagiannidis, the numbers and models indicate that a plateau has been reached or will at least be reached soon. At the moment, just over 200 people are admitted to an intensive care unit every day, said the scientific director of the Divi intensive care register. However, the total occupancy would not increase as much. According to reporting data from the RKI and individual federal states, there was also a significant increase in the number of patients in the normal wards, Karagiannidis said. “But there, too, we have the first tendencies that this strong increase is now coming to a standstill or at least is no longer increasing at the same rate.”
The bioinformatician Lars Kaderali explains the breaking of the wave with a kind of saturation effect. “With the increasing number of people who have recovered, the virus is finding fewer and fewer people who are still susceptible to infection,” said the Greifswald scientist, who is also a member of the Federal Government’s Expert Council. He emphasizes that as a result of changed regulations, such as the easing of corona measures, new contact networks could arise in which the virus spread would pick up speed again. “So the saturation effect can drop away a bit.” One can only safely assume calmer waters from around April, even if seasonal effects slow down the spread of the virus, said Kaderali.
PCR test positivity is declining
The laboratory physicians also see the first signs of a waning infection process. In the week to Sunday, for the first time since the beginning of the year, both the number of tests carried out and the so-called positive rate declined, the Association of Accredited Laboratories in Medicine (ALM) announced on Tuesday. “Although the slight decrease in the number of tests gives us a positive feeling as the first indication of a declining infection rate, the laboratories still see reason for caution and caution. The peak of the omicron wave has still not been reached in some federal states,” said Nina Beikert, member of the ALM board.
One of the problems in interpreting the course of infection is the uncertain data situation. Experts assume a high number of cases that are not recorded in the RKI data, for example because the reporting and test system is overloaded. In addition, the number of people who no longer have their infection confirmed by a PCR test is likely to increase – the infection is therefore not included in the official statistics.
A renewed increase in the number of infections is also conceivable if the apparently even more easily transmitted omicron subtype BA.2 spreads in Germany. So far, the sub-variant BA.1 has prevailed in this country.
Source: Stern
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