Location at an overview: growing concern about conflict with Iran

In the Middle East, concern is growing against Iran’s possible attack. For security reasons, the USA allies with Israel reduce their embassy staff in Iraq. It is feared that the management of the Islamic Republic in the event of an Israeli attack on the arch enemy could arrange retaliation against US bases in the region.

When asked about the embassy staff, US President Donald Trump in Washington replied: “They are deducted because it could be a dangerous place. We will see what happens.” Iran “cannot have nuclear weapons, we won’t allow that,” said Trump.

Iran threatens to attack US bases

Iran’s Defense Minister Asis Nasirsadeh threatened the United States in the event of a military escalation. At the same time, the Brigadieral expressed hope that the nuclear negotiations with Washington will lead to a result. “But if the negotiations fail and we are forced to deal, the losses of the opposite side will certainly be far higher than ours,” quoted him, the state -owned Iranian news agency Ira. With regard to consideration, Iran will target all of its bases in the region, he warned.

The support points of the US military on the Persian Gulf, for example in Bahrain and Qatar, are not very far from Iran and could be aimed at an escalation in the event of an escalation. In his neighboring country Iraq, Iran, in turn, has a great influence, including allies through allied Shiite militias. In addition, the regional power has an unknown number of underground missiles that can reach Israel’s territory. The leadership in Tehran claims not to strive for the construction of nuclear weapons, but rather to operate the nuclear program for civilian purposes solely.

Trump: I’m much less confident

Trump still relies on negotiations with Iran in the dispute. In a podcast called “Pod Force One”, however, he said: “I am now less confident than a few months ago. Something happened to them, but I am much less confident that a deal will come about.” Trump had originally set a period of two months for negotiations with Tehran, but they would soon be over. It is unclear whether there will be another round of negotiation this week.

The British Marine (UKMTO) sea dealership supervision said that they had been informed about tensions “which could lead to an escalation of military activities”. Ships should exercise caution in the Persian Golf, in the Gulf of Oman and on the street of Hormus, a seafares that are important for shipping between Iran and the Oman. In view of the growing tensions, the prices on the oil markets increased significantly.

Israel allegedly prepares attack

Trump has warned Iran several times that there could be a military operation without an agreement. He does not want to do that, but was ready, said the US President. In addition, Israel could also start an attack on his arch enemy Iran – with or without the support of the US allied. According to US media reports, Israel has already prepared a possible attack on the Iranian nuclear facilities. However, it is unclear whether the Israeli government had already made a final decision.

Last year, Israel and Iran have been on the edge of an open war. The leadership in Tehran has been calling for the annihilation of the Jewish state for decades. The Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu considers a deal only acceptable if he would lead to the destruction of all of Iran’s nuclear facilities. The leadership in Israel has repeatedly threatened to attack the Iranian nuclear facilities.

Experts doubt the effect of a military strike

However, experts have doubts as to whether the nuclear program could be stopped by a military beat. That would be an “extraordinarily complex military commitment”, according to an analysis of the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. In addition, the centrifuge program can be rebuilt relatively quickly. In the opinion of experts, air strikes would at best throw back the nuclear program at some time, but do not stop in the long term. In addition, a military strike could move Iran to develop nuclear weapons.

At the same time, important allies of Iran – the HISBOLLAH militia in Lebanon and the Islamist Hamas in the Gaza Strip are extremely weakened in Israel on October 7, 2023 due to the Israeli military procedure since the Palestinian terrorist massac. At that time, the attackers killed around 1,200 people and kidnapped more than 250 more into the Gaza Strip, which caused the Gaza war to be triggered to this day.

Army: Corpse of two hostages in the Gaza Strip

According to the Israeli armed forces, two hostage corpses have now been recovered in the south of the sealed coastal area. Both men were killed in the attack on October 7, 2023, their corpses were dragged to Gaza. One of the victims was the then 59-year-old Jair Jaakov. His partner and two of his sons were kidnapped in the course of the October massacre and released as part of a hostage deal. Israel’s army held back the name of the second victim at the family’s request.

According to Israeli counts, at least 20 living hostages are still in the violence of Hamas. With two other kidnapped people, it is unclear whether they are still living. With 31 hostages, it is firmly assumed that they are dead.

Activists on the way to the Rafah border crossing

Meanwhile, several hundred activists have broken up in Tunisia since Monday on the way via Libya towards Egypt. According to their own statements, they want to draw attention to the humanitarian emergency in Gaza at the Rafah border crossing and protest against Israel’s attacks. However, Egypt’s government asked the activists to obtain official permits.

Last month, after an almost three -month blockage of auxiliary deliveries by Israel, the use of the Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF) started. This should represent an alternative to the use of the UN and international aid organizations in the Gaza Strip. Israel and the United States want to prevent Hamas from being used by the GHF. However, the foundation is controversial. Finally, there were repeated fatal incidents near their distribution centers.