Iran is bombarded-how can the Mullah regime hit back?

Israel bombies goals in Iran, the US President was inaugurated. The attacks, known as “Rising Lion” operation, aimed at nuclear systems such as Natanz and Fordow as well as command centers of the revolutionary guards to weaken Iran’s nuclear program and military leadership. The international reactions are mixed: while the United States supported the Israeli attacks, China and Russia condemned the actions, and the UN call for a de -escalation to prevent a regional war. Now the question arises: How will the Mullah regime react? This depends above all on the actual strength of the Israeli attacks. In April 2024, Iran countered with drone and rocket attacks on Israel- as a retaliation for an Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus. These were previously announced to demonstrate the military skills and to maintain the face. At the same time, they were so limited that no further escalation followed.

Although the Israeli attacks were stronger than ever, a similar, glamorous development is still possible today. Iranian drones have already started, but not in a number that will overwhelm Israeli air defense. A moderate answer does not feed on the regime’s love of peace, but from its military weakness. Despite the support of Russia and China, Tehran has no effective antidote against the Israeli attacks.

Israel’s state-of-the-art jets, including the F-35 stealth jet, can apparently attack goals in Iran. Iranian air defense is largely ineffective against stealth technology and Israeli electronic warfare. So far, Israel has not lost a plane. This is a different situation than in the war between Russia and Ukraine, where manned aircraft are rarely used via the opponent controlled by the opponent, since both sides use strong air defense systems. In response to attacks on his nuclear program, however, Iran could try to accelerate uranium enrichment.

But should the attack extend to a war – what is the possibilities of Iran? A soil war of the Iranian military is almost impossible. Both countries have no common border, and Iran would have to lay its troops over hundreds of kilometers, including the Iraqi area. This is impossible at short notice, and Iraq would hardly be drawn into such a war. In view of the Israeli air superiority, Iranian soil troops would suffer high losses on the move.

In the event of a direct confrontation, drones and rockets are the strongest weapons of Iran. The country has thousands of ballistic rockets, numerous long -distance roaring and possibly hyperschall weapons, but the usefulness of which is unconfirmed. This program follows the motto “The mass counts” – the sheer amount of air bodies should overwhelm every air defense. Even if defense batteries successfully shoot attackers, more and more long -distance weapons should arrive until the defense runs out the rockets. In the past, Israel’s multi -layered air defense system, including Arrow, David’s Sling and Iron Dome, has proven to be highly effective against rockets and drones.

The chances of success of Iranian attacks are low as long as Tehran does not go “all in” and thousands of weapons start. In addition to physical attacks, Iran has advanced cyber war capacities, with which it could attack critical infrastructure such as power grids, financial systems or communication networks in Israel or allied countries.

But even if this succeeds, Iranian blows would be less effective than the Israel. Iran lacks precise target information about which Israel has thanks to its secret service and US support. However, successful Iranian attacks would cause considerable damage to the image of the “impregnable fortress Israel”. In theory, attacks on civilian goals such as apartment blocks could be conceivable to damage Israel’s image, but Iran has so far rely on other strategies.

A greater chance of success would have rocket attacks on institutions of Israel or the United States in other countries in the region, since these are not protected by Israeli air defense. Whether military bases, diplomatic representations or other destinations-2020 Iran attacked air force bases with American troops in Iraq, after killing the military commander Qasem Soleimani through a US drone attack.

If Iran risk an open confrontation with the United States, US fleet associations could also be targeted. A massive swarm of marching air bodies or drones could overwhelm the defense capacities of US ships. Iran could also attack global oil supply. The Middle East produces around 30 percent of global oil, mainly in Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait. A failure of oil production or shipping in Hormuz’s street could drive up oil prices worldwide, which would particularly affect Europe with its dependence on imports. Individual attacks already have enormous effects. In 2019, a rocket and drone attack of Iranian allies met an oil system in Saudi Arabia.

Likewise, Iran could paralyze shipping in Hormuz’s street or, if less likely, attack ships in the Indian Ocean. The consequences for the global economy, especially for Europe, would be serious. It is enough to attack individual ships so that civil shipping avoids this route.

So far, Tehran has chosen a “more elegant” path. Instead of fighting themselves, allies such as the Huthis, Hamas and Hisbollah were sent. The Hisbollah in Lebanon, with tens of thousands of rockets and drones, is a special threat because it operates directly on Israel’s north border and is able to carry out precise attacks on military and civil goals. In this way, Iran was able to enforce its interests without assuming direct responsibility. In the future, Iran could equip the Huthis, Hamas and Hisbollah with more effective, far -reaching long -distance weapons to achieve its goals. In addition to attacks on sea routes and oil production, attacks on the US fleet would be conceivable-so equipped so that the United States runs the risk of losing large over water ships.