Middle East conflict: could Moscow come to the aid of Iran?

How Russia could help his strategic partner Iran in war with Israel has been a hotly debated question for days not only in Moscow. So far, Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, who has contacts with the tours of both countries, has brought himself into play as an intermediary. US President Donald Trump even supports this – even though Putin has started a brutal war himself in Ukraine.

Tehran mainly needs military help – especially Moscow Aircraft Systems. But Putin not only sees himself in a difficult situation through his own war. He doesn’t want to spoil it with Trump after Moscow and Washington want to improve their relationships again.

Russia not only sees disadvantages in the war in the Middle East: the oil price has increased, which flushes more money in Putin’s war treasury. And Russia is happy about everything that gives away the attention of the international community from his attacks against Ukraine.

Moscow is surprised by Israel’s “brutality”

However, Moscow very well knew about the disappointment in Tehran that there has been no tangible support so far, says the prominent expert for Russia’s foreign policy, Fyodor Lukjanow, in a podcast. Russia, even under the impression of the “level of brutality” of Israel and the poor preparation of Iran, is on the attacks.

Russia is also grateful for Iran because of the support in the Ukraine War, explains the editor-in-chief of the journal “Russia in global politics”. Above all, Moscow uses – now also produced by itself – drones of Iranian design for his attacks. However, Lukjanow considers a military or diplomatic support from Russia to be conceivable, not a real military operation in Iran.

Expert: Putin’s war against Ukraine has priority

“Russia will not be involved in militarily in Iran because the country in the region is pursuing different interests,” says Lukjanow. “Russia has a priority – and that is the war in Ukraine.” There the country is militarily bound.

For years, Russia and Iran have been the most important allies of the Syrian ruler Bashar al-Assad, supported by Tehran. But since it falls, the balance of power in the region has shifted – also in favor of Israel.

Moscow and Tehran officially closed a strategic partnership that was officially respected this year. However, this does not contain a clause about a military support – unlike the agreement concluded between Russia and North Korea. Experts in Moscow therefore see, among other things, the possibility of humanitarian, financial and economic aid, especially since both sides have sworn solidarity in view of the hard western sanctions.

Russia warns of nuclear danger

The nuclear power of Russia always supported the civilian use of nuclear energy in Iran and repeatedly acted as an intermediary in the conflict of the nuclear program. The Kremlin now offered to take over nuclear material from Iran for storage in Russia. Everything has to be done for a peaceful solution, emphasizes Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskow almost every day. However, many commentators in Moscow also unattended whether Iran shouldn’t have nuclear weapons – given the Israeli danger. Officially, Russia also rejects possible Iranian nuclear weapons.

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which Israel – even nuclear power, reacted particularly sharply after the strokes against the Iranian nuclear facilities and military in “atrocities” in an unusual tone. Ministry spokeswoman Maria Sacharova warns of a nuclear danger in the Middle East, the world is promoting “a nuclear disaster”.

Last but not least, Moscow gives a complicity to Western states – they would have supported the destructive and dangerous politics of Israel with “anti -Iiran hysteria”. It is particularly “cynical” that Israel started the controversial Iranian nuclear program with his attacks in the middle of ongoing negotiations between Washington and Tehran.

Does Russia drop Iran because of Trump?

Such sharp convictions of Israel are well received in Iran. But there are also great fears that Putin in a possible deal with Trump could fail to help Iran and so sacrifice it if the United States in return set up its help for Ukraine. Russian military bloggers are already rejoiced that every rocket that Trump handed over Israel are missing for Ukraine in the end.

The Iranian political scientist Alireza Noori recognizes in a contribution to the Russian journal “Russia in Global Politics” efforts to hold together Tehrans and Moscow in the case of conflicts. At the same time, the expert reminds of one of the “main problems in Iranian-Russian relations”: In times of tensions between Moscow and the West-as at the beginning of the Russian War against Ukraine, the relationship was always particularly strong. In times of more sympathy between Moscow and Washington, it is different. That is why Tehran is particularly attentive to Trump’s relationship with Putin.