Israel-Why doesn’t Merz say how risky the Iran war is?

“This is the dirty work, the Israel does for all of us,” says the Chancellor about Israel’s attack on Iran. He “had the greatest respect for the Israeli army to have the courage to do the Israeli government the courage to do that.” And further: “Otherwise we might have seen this terror of this regime for months and years and then possibly with a nuclear weapon in hand.”

Merz is right: the leadership in Tehran is terrorized and has not only suppressed people in their own country for decades. The bloodspur of the revolutionary guards runs from the torture knots and gallows of the Islamic Republic to Iraq, Syria, Lebanon and Eastern Europe to Germany.

It was less than two years ago that the Düsseldorf Higher Regional Court has sentenced a henchman of the garden to a Bochum synagogue for a failed arson attack. Thirty years after the most famous terrorist act of the Iranian regime on German soil, the four-time murder in the Berlin restaurant “Mykonos” 1992. In the meantime: a series of kidnappings, murders, dark machinations and threats-at the front, Israel should disappear from the map.

So far, so villain. Only: Is that why the chancellor’s word of the “dirty work for all of us”, which Israel is supposed to do in Iran? Is Friedrich Merz right with the assumption without This war would be ahead of us for months and years with terror from Tehran? Does Israel really make the world so much safer with his war of attack?

Doubts are appropriate. Because this war against the Islamic Republic is dangerous, also for Germany, and its outcome is completely open. This war has what it takes to make the world much more insecure than it already is. For several reasons.

First: The attack goes far beyond the nuclear facilities of Iran. Israel’s strategy has been emerging for days, aims to shake the Iranian state into its foundations. With air strikes against state television as well as on drinking water supply in parts of the capital. The call to the residents of Tehran, you should leave the city, is an act of psychological warfare. 16 million people live in the greater Tehran area, and the city is a juggernach in constant traffic jam in peace. Correspondingly large – and intends – is the panic that Israel sown to escape with the request, and the beginning of the care crisis that she triggered. Bakeries run out of the flour, petrol stations. Because Israel’s Air Force has also let important fuel depots on the edge of Tehrans go up in flames.

Israel’s government, which is said to go to war only because of the dangerous nuclear program, is now open to the fall of the Iranian regime openly.

It is not that far yet. The powerful in Tehran know: There is no way out for them, no alternative – except to stay in power. They still have the funds.

But when is the tilting point where the state order begins to dissolve? If health care no longer works? When looting begin? Or if a sudden currency decrease, for example, because a collapse of the oil and gas export via Iran’s ports triggers a state bankruptcy?

What is certain is that if this process begins, it will hardly be stopped. Because there is hardly anyone who could stop the chaos. The Iranian regime has eliminated any alternative to its rule for decades. There is also no reasonably disciplined troop that could take control out of exile. Iran’s civil society is shattered. And there will be no foreign troops in Iran.

Keeping together a country in dissolution – with over 90 million inhabitants, umpteen ethnic groups and the second largest oil reserves in the world – would be a Ascension command. See: Iraq (45 million inhabitants, plus oil). See: Afghanistan (41 million inhabitants, no oil). Hundreds of thousands of new refugees would try to come to Europe if the giant country Iran turned into a patchwork dominated by Warlord’s. Some of them – possibly – with their own, stored uranium enriched piles.

Secondly: Israel claims that the time of the attack was essential because Iran had immediately stood by the breakout, before the last step to build a bomb. So far, the government in Jerusalem has apparently not even presented evidence of the closest ally in America.

Rafael Grossi, General Director of the International Atomic Energy Authority (IAEO), whose inspectors still work in Iran today, contradicts: “We have no evidence of a systematic attempt (Iran) to build a nuclear weapon.” Tulsi Gabard, Donald Trump’s own intelligence coordinator, also only recorded in March before the US Congress: “The top leader Khamenei did not (again) approved the nuclear weapons program in 2003.” The US intelligence agencies are further convinced that “Iran is not in the process of building a nuclear weapon”.

“I don’t care,” says US President Donald Trump. Does Friedrich Merz look similar?

Is not so important for German Chancellor? Even some liberals argue today that the international rules of the post -war rules of the game have now been taken with feet for so long, from everyone that you can overlook it yourself. .

Does Friedrich Merz also think that way? He therefore lets his Foreign Minister Johann WadePhul tell mantra-like that the United States is not going to enter the Israel Iran War, while Donald Trump threatens Iran’s head of state with death on the social media, sends and posts bomber relay towards Persian Golf: “We Check the sky over Tehran. “

Instead of a huge words, Merz should remember the success of German Iran diplomacy. And send his foreign minister to Tehran to seek a last chance for diplomacy – in close coordination with the allies Washington and Jerusalem, but regardless of their consent. Just like in 2003, when the then Foreign Minister Joschka Fischer, with his French and British counterparts on a spectacular mission to Tehran, brought the feat to move the regime to the task of his nuclear weapons program at the time – and to avert a threatening war.

Third: Dangerous, yes strange, the amazement of many politicians in Germany about the “courage” (Friedrich Merz) and the operational brilliance of the Israeli foreign intelligence agency Mossad and the Israeli Air Force. Drone bases in the land of the enemy, targeted “declarations” of the most important cadres of the Islamic Republic, artificial intelligence that controls drones into their goals-this may seem like an exciting intelligence thriller from a distance. The live report on the Mossad’s hussar pieces in Tehran on “Fox News” is said to have significantly motivated Trump to participate in this war, writes the “New York Times”.

What is forgotten: it is negligent to get a regime like Iranian in trouble-as long as IAEO and US intelligence agency unanimously say that no direct nuclear breakout is imminent. If it feels existentially threatened, Iranian leadership can do a lot of damage. Will Donald Trump then hold out – he who gave a small time against the Huthis in Yemen after six weeks?

Something else is missing from the dirty work in Middle East in the Chancellor picture: the effect of this war on Israel’s other neighbors in the Middle East. How should this region be calm when a state – and only one – thanks to superior weapons, secret services and artificial intelligence has the ability to liquidate the complete guidance of any other at any time? With his war, Israel not only proves its dominance as a regional superpower. But also that in doubt nothing and nobody can be stopped. That should let alarm bells shrill all over the Middle East.

“If I were responsible for the strategic planning of Türkiye,” wrote a former Israel ambassador of France on X, “then I would start thinking seriously about the option of a nuclear weapon.” Not unlikely that in view of the pictures from Tehran, not only in Ankara, but also in Riad, Doha or Baku, powerful people get the impression: there is only security in front of Israel on one way. With the atomic bomb.

Then Israel’s war would have achieved the opposite of what it started.