War between Israel and Iran: Second week of the war: Europeans struggle for diplomatic solution

The Israeli Air Force continues its attacks in Iran a week after the war begins. The goal was recently Iranian rocket systems, as the Israeli military announced. Meanwhile, Germany, France and Great Britain are trying to have a negotiating solution. Federal Foreign Minister Johann WadePhul meets talks together with his colleagues from France and Great Britain with the Iranian chief diplomat Abbas Araghtschi in Geneva.

Iran is now on the train, warned WadePhul before the meeting. Araghtschi, on the other hand, called for an end to the Israeli attacks as a prerequisite for negotiations.

US President Donald Trump had his spokeswoman Karoline Leavitt explained that within the next two weeks he wanted to decide whether the United States would intervene in the war against Iran as the most important ally of allies.

Macron: Military solution is not effective

The British Foreign Minister David Lammy, who met U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio in Washington shortly before the meeting in Geneva, sees the time window mentioned by Trump as an opportunity for a diplomatic solution and warned of a further escalation of the conflict. It is now time to put an end to the dramatic scenes, said Lammy.

France’s President Emmanuel Macron also warned a negotiating solution. “The Iranian nuclear area is a threat and there must be no lax attitude on the matter,” said Macron in Paris. However, he added: “Nobody can seriously believe that this threat is responding to ongoing operations.” There are very well protected works in Iran and nobody can currently say exactly where the uranium enriched for 60 percent.

Katz wants comprehensive evacuation of Tehrans

After an early end of the conflict, it did not look at first. Israel’s Minister of Defense Israel Katz instructed the army to expand its attacks, increasingly targeting the government’s goals in Tehran. In this way, the “regime” should be destabilized, said Katz. State symbols should be attacked and comprehensive evacuation of the population of Tehran.

The UN refugee agency (UNHCR) is preparing for larger refugee groups from Iran. “We create crisis plans,” said UNHCR boss Filippo Grandi of the German Press Agency. “We haven’t published it yet because we do not have enough information and because we wait for the development. But we definitely plan.” There are already unconfirmed reports on arrival in Iran in Armenia, Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, said Grandi.

Israel euphorically about its own military strength

According to Israeli information, rocket systems in the areas of Tehran and Isfahan were destroyed in the attacks on Friday. With the attacks, the Air Force is planning to expand its freedom of action in Iranian airspace, the military said.

In view of his own military strength, the Middle East expert Simon Fuchs believes that there is almost euphoria in Israel. Therefore, the country is currently not actually interested in an agreement, said the professor of Islamic Studies at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem. “You don’t want to let go of Iran of any military power and also of any nuclear skills,” said Fuchs in an interview with the German Press Agency.

If there is no fundamental rethink here, the European talks are actually doomed to failure, Fuchs continued.

Tehran would have to do without uranium enrichment

Fuchs sees a real chance for the advance of Europeans if Iran could be avoided to do without any uranium enrichment – also for civil purposes. So far, the government in Tehran strictly rejects this.

However, the expert would be conceivable to steer Tehran without complete loss of facial loss. The political and religious leadership could refer to the still existing power of their rocket power, including the impact on the Iranian perspective in the Israeli core country, says Fuchs. The upcoming Islamic mourning month Muharram also offers an opportunity to ideologically justify the exceeding of supposedly red lines. “In Iranian-Shiite understanding, this is about overpowering enemies and evil in the world,” says Fuchs.

In Tehran, a rally of government supporters occurred after the Friday prayer. Security expert Riad Kahwaji from the Institute for Near East and Gulf Military Analysis (Inegma) based in Dubai assumes that Iran is currently playing for time.

Tehran rationed his rockets and try to maintain morality in his own country with propaganda. A US intervention with a targeted blow on the uranium enrichment system in Fordo can therefore prevent a long conflict. However, it is unclear whether this would lead to a capitulation in Tehran or even a government collapse, he said in the DPA conversation.