The USA: Trump’s bombs to Iran – is now threatening a world fire?

Blue jacket, red tie and “Make America Great Again” cap on the head-US President Donald Trump has followed the bombing of the Iranian nuclear facilities in the “situation Room” of the White House. When looking at the photos, on which Trump shows a emphasized expression, many people should ask themselves, especially in Germany: Does the man know what he is doing? Or has he now thrown the fuss that can fully escalate the location in the Middle East and finally triggers a large world fire?

The risk of escalation has increased with the USA’s entry into the war

Even when viewed soberly, it must be said that the conflict between Israel and Iran has reached a new escalation level with the USA’s entry into war. “We have now reached a point where the situation for the United States has become almost uncontrollable because the further development depends on how Iran is now reacting,” analyzes the Middle East expert Jan Busse from the University of the Bundeswehr Munich.

Conflict researcher Nicole Deitelhoff expresses it as follows: “At the moment Trump represents that he says:” Wonderful, the Iranian nuclear program is destroyed, so the job is done, we’re going home. “It will certainly not be.”

Experts see three possible scenarios

Iran has announced consequences according to the US attacks. For this, the two experts see three possible scenarios. The first would be that Iran is driving directly with ballistic rockets or drones against US armed forces that are stationed in the Middle East. The US military has stationed around 40,000 soldiers in the Middle East. The bases in Bahrain and Qatar on the Persian Golf, for example, are not far from Iran. “Due to the geographical proximity, these troops for Iran would also be much easier to reach than Israel,” explains Busse.

If this happened and should US soldiers be killed, it would hardly be imaginable that Trump has the matter based. Rather, he could see himself forced to make a shelter of what the United States would go deeper into war.

The second scenario would be that Iran does not attack US troops itself, but leaves all the allied militias in Iraq or Yemen. In this case, it might be conceivable that Trump could do without a counter strike without a facial loss.

A third scenario would be that Iran is pushing the street of Hormus through which, according to estimates, up to a quarter of global oil production is shipped. “That would have massive consequences for the oil price and the global economy,” said Busse. However, Deitelhoff does not consider this to be the most plausible scenario, “because from Iran’s perspective, it would also recover too many risks, for example with a view to China, one of the last countries that would be in the UN Security Council for Iran”.

Doubts about the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program

Busse also points out that, according to the often well -informed platform Amwaj.media, there are indications that the United States gave Iran a warning before the attacks – namely that only the nuclear facilities would be attacked, but the United States did not seek further expansion of the conflict. A large part of Trump’s followers-the so-called Maga wing (“Make America Great Again”)-is radically against a involvement of the USA into distant conflicts, and Trump himself has always emphasized in the election campaign that I want to end and do not want to start again.

In the current case, however, he was faced with accomplished facts by Israel’s head of government Benjamin Netanyahu. “We see a changed relationship between Israel and the USA,” analyzes Deitelhoff. Trump had now faced the choice of either not doing anything and risking that Israel could not completely destroy the Iranian nuclear program because it does not have the necessary bunker bombs – or just intervene. Netanyahu actually took the cards out of his hand, says Deitelhoff. “This is a power -political masterpiece of Netanyahus, extremely clever – you have to grant him that.”

However, both Deitelhoff and buses emphasize that it is absolutely not certain that the Iranian nuclear program is now really destroyed. In addition, according to Busse, the current situation can cause Iran to strive for the atomic bomb even more evenly, because otherwise it cannot feel safe.

How important does Trump take Europe? “Zero comma zero”

How big is the risk of expanding the conflict to a great war that could also affect Germany in the end? “It is not to be feared that we will be drawn into such a war,” says Deitelhoff’s conviction. “Of course, Germany may continue to provide weapons, but I think that we will become active war party is excluded. Conversely, however, it also applies that Germany has almost no diplomatic means to influence this war.” Trump started after Germany, France and Great Britain had just spoken to the Iranian foreign minister to get new negotiations going. “It shows what importance the United States attaches to its European allies: none – zero comma zero,” said Deitelhoff. “Europe is almost closed in this conflict.”

Busse also believes that the war will primarily limit itself to the region of the Middle East. However, it would be different if the Iranian regime was overthrown: “Then we could get it to deal with a failed state there, from which massive security risks assume, including for Europe.”

The German-Iranian author and orientalist Navid Kermani also fears chaos in this case: “Iran is a country in which 45 percent of people have a different mother tongue than Persian,” explains Kermani of the dpa. “It is a multi -ethnic state. You just have to look at Afghanistan, in the Iraq, in Yemen, to Syria, to Libya, to see what dangers this harbors.”