“It’s almost a natural tie”explained Guillermo Durán, mathematician, director of the 301060 platform, researcher at the Calculus Institute and current dean of the Faculty of Exact and Natural Sciences of the UBA.
“A technical draw that has to do with the fact that both teams were always very eveneven before the World Cup began,” he added in dialogue with Telam.
How the mathematical model began
The project to create 301060, the system that calculates the results of soccer matches, It was developed in 2018 by a group of scientists who are passionate about sports.
“We started our project testing with the qualifiers for the World Cup in Russia, taking and adjusting a similar undertaking of scientific colleagues from the University of Chile and the Institute for Complex Engineering Systems (ISCI). Then, we apply it in the two Copa América in 2021 and 2022respectively, and now in this World Cup Qatar 2022“Duran said.
“Many of us are soccer fans, That is why 301060 combines two passions: mathematics and soccer. In addition to being a tribute to Diego Maradona, since the name is the date of his birth“, he pointed.
How do you calculate odds?
The mathematician explained what the system is like to calculate the probabilities of victory for each team: “301060 is a platform in which mathematical models are put into operation that take as input the recent history of the results obtained by the teams participating in the World Cup“.
Then he added: “These models are calculated on high-performance computers with which the probabilities of the different outcomes of each match can be estimated. Given those calculations, the tournament is simulated millions of times to approximate the probabilities of the possible partial and final results“.
Finally, he concluded that apparently during the last time between Argentina and France, the result is still uncertain: “If we look at the performance of both teams in the World Cup, in terms of games they won, tied or lost, goals they scored and were scored , everything pays for this potential technical tie“.
Source: Ambito
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