Euro 2024: If you want to reach the round of 16, you also have to hope for group opponents

Shame and a global scandal. When there is suspicion of deliberate rigging at football tournaments, there is a great outcry. This Wednesday, in the otherwise unspectacular European Championship duel between Slovakia and Romania in Frankfurt am Main, a second Gijón would theoretically be possible. A draw would be enough for both outsiders to secure their place in the round of 16. But the teams unanimously assert that there will be no scenes similar to those during the non-aggression pact at the 1982 World Cup.

At that time, in the Spanish city of Gijón, both Germany and Austria had reached the next round with a 1-0 win for the DFB selection – at the expense of Algeria, which had already exited the group phase. The game went down in history as the Shame of Gijón. This time, Germany will play a supporting role at most, as Daniel Siebert will be refereeing the explosive match.

Kevin De Bruyne and his Belgians are also involved in Group E, in which all four teams have three points. The Red Devils have their chances of progressing in their own hands with a win or a draw against Ukraine, but their position in the group depends largely on the outcome of the parallel match. And Romania and Slovakia could theoretically agree on that.

Slovaks don’t want to pull out calculators

“We haven’t pulled out our calculators yet, although that’s the norm in Slovakia,” assured Slovakian veteran Stanislav Lobotka. Romania doesn’t want to allow any speculation about a deal-breaker to arise. “Guys, my message is clear. We’re playing for first place, we’re playing to win the group! Just as we gave everything every second before, we will now and always give everything every second!” said coach Edi Iordanescu in a message to his players.

He stressed: “Yes, a draw against Slovakia is enough for us. If it ends like that, we’ll be happy. But for it to end like that, we have to be ready to want to win this game.” The goal is first place, so that they can face an easier opponent in the round of 16. But how much risk does a team take when a defeat threatens an early exit – and certainly not a 0-0 draw?

Outsiders like Slovakia, Romania and Ukraine are of course happy that the European Championship has been played with 24 teams instead of 16 since 2016. The fact that they have to play on the last day of the group matches means that the teams concerned can do some math – and theoretically even push the ball around. The tricky constellation could become a problem for UEFA. And in the worst case scenario, it could cause a scandal that will be remembered.

One win and the round of 16 of the 2024 European Championship is secure

Both Slovakia and Romania (6 p.m./ARD and MagentaTV) as well as Ukraine and Belgium with the Italian-German coach Domenico Tedesco (6 p.m./RTL and MagentaTV) have their progress in their own hands before the group final on Wednesday. A win is enough for each team in the quartet.

Thanks to the format with 24 teams and six groups, from which the four best third-placed teams advance, the Slovaks and Romania also know before kick-off that if the match, which is being refereed by German referee Siebert, ends in a draw, both teams would remain in the top three of the group. This is an enormous advantage compared to teams like Hungary and Croatia, who did not have as much information at the start of the last group round matchday. For Ukraine, on the other hand, the situation could prove to be their downfall if they draw or lose against Belgium due to the worst goal difference.

“Of course, we know that,” said Ukrainian midfielder Heorhiy Sudakov when asked whether the team was aware that a draw might not be enough. He hopes: “Nobody in the team is talking about a draw. Everyone is preparing to play to win.” His teammate Maxym Talowjerov explained: “I believe that a team that is playing for a draw has already lost the game 95 percent of the time. That’s why every national team, including Ukraine, is playing to win.” If both games end in a draw, Ukraine would remain fourth.

“World scandal” for Italy at the 2004 European Championship

The tricky scenario in which two opponents need a certain result on the last day of group matches is nothing new: Even at the 2004 European Championships – when there were only 16 participants and the third-placed teams in the group could not advance – Denmark and Sweden would both have reached the quarter-finals with a 2:2 draw. That was exactly how the match ended, with Italy being knocked out despite a 2:1 win against Bulgaria. The reason was a three-way match between Denmark, Sweden and the Squadra Azzurra.

This had already caused great discontent in the camp of opponents Italy before the match: Gennaro Gattuso even demanded the use of 50 TV cameras so that even the smallest sign of match-fixing could be documented during the match. “This is a global scandal,” said the furious goalkeeper Gianluigi Buffon afterwards. Coach Giovanni Trapattoni, however, said: “We have no suspicions against the Scandinavians and we are leaving with our heads held high.”