This month, the downward trend since January has continued, and since then inflation expectations have gone from exceeding 100% to below 80%.
Price indicators bring good news to the government of Javier Milei, whose main objective – and greatest achievement so far – is the reduction of inflation. A traditional consumer survey found that the expected inflation For the next twelve months, the rate fell by 7.1 percentage points, from 80.6% in July to 73.5% this month. According to the median, in August it remained at 50%.
The data belongs toThe Center for Research in Finance (CIF) from the Torcuato Di Tella University Business School, which prepares the Inflation Expectations Survey (EI) on a monthly basis, taking into account the perception of inflation based on two variables: geographic area and educational level.
Sebastián Auguste, director of the UTDT Center for Financial Research, said: “The expected inflation registers a new fall in our measurement for August, based on data collected between the 1st and 9th of this month. The average value recorded for the expected inflation for the next 12 months is 73.5%. This month continues the downward trend that began in January, with the exception of June, which had reported a small increase. In January 2024, the expectation was for an annual inflation of 230%, since April it is below 100% and falling.”
“An annual inflation expectation of 73.5% as recorded in August implies an average (effective) monthly rate for the next 12 months of 4.7%,” he explained.
Supermarket Consumption Inflation Meat Prices
Mariano Fuchila
Inflation expectations by region
In August, according to Di Tella, homogeneity between regions is maintained despite a slight increase in the gap. The inflation expectation for the interior of the country in the next 12 months is higher (82.3%) than in Greater Buenos Aires (76.2%) and for CABA (81.4%).
Inflation expectations according to educational level
By educational level (which is used as a proxy for income level), higher-income households are those with lower inflation expectations for the next 12 months. For these households, Inflation expectations rose from 81.5% in July to 71% in August. On the other hand, for the hIn low-income households, expected inflation increased from 78.8% in July to 79.5% this month.”
Source: Ambito
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