With the latest inflation datawhich was above expectations (4.2% versus 3.9%), There was increased pressure on the exchange rate after several months of currency appreciation (greater weight strength), which in some way This drives the market to seek a dollarization of assets in the face of an appreciation of the peso. But, it is important to see how the fixed income in foreign currency performed to determine the potential for growth in the short term.
“The recent exchange rate appreciation prompts us to evaluate the best alternatives for a dollarization partial. Given the compression of corporate bond yields and the lag of global bonds compared to Bopreals, we believe that the current scenario favors a better relative performance of Treasury bonds.”they explained from Delphos Investment.
ONs: flows arrive in the face of money laundering
The appetite for corporate debt grew with the funds that came from money laundering. This strong demand caused a compression in yields, bringing spreads to minimum levels. As a result, many companies took the opportunity to access international markets and refinance their debts. Despite this, From different sectors, they recommend that profiles that do not seek so much risk, invest in ONs.
Thus, since Adcap They argued: “Given the more conservative nature of this type of investor, who preferred give up interest rate to stay out of the reach of the State (not only for the fiscal aspect but also for other risks such as reprofiling, corralito, etc.), we expect that natural behavior will be directed towards more conservative assets and less exposed to the ups and downs of politics such as Negotiable Bonds yielding around 8% yield”.
In this regard, from IEBthey recalled that YPF carried out the placement of its new ON class 31 NY law to 2031 which cut to 8.75% managing to raise the planned US$500 MMhaving received offers for US$1.784 MM. The early acceptance period for the repurchase of the ONs expired on Thursday YCA6O and YCAMO, while you can still enter in the late participation stage until September 27.
“The valuation of the YCA6O offer is located at an IRR of 13% while for YCAMO it is at 10.5%, when In secondary school they operate at 8% and 8.2% respectively“, they added from this broker.
Bopreales or Globales: which is better?
“The superior performance of the Bopreal in front of the Global It is an anomaly given that the former, being a better issuer and with a shorter term, have a beta of 0.45 in relation to the Global ones. This has caused the ratio between the two instruments to be at one extreme, suggesting that global instruments are lagging. Furthermore, while the Bopreal are only 3% away from their historical highs, treasury bonds still need to rise on average 13% to return to these“, they contributed from Delphos.
From IEB, they contributed that The drivers of bonds remain positive, as the Government continues to consolidate its fiscal surplus and eliminate all sources of issuance. “An alternative that offers a better risk/return ratio in the medium term is longer duration securities (GD35, GD41) They are a good bet for the normalization of the curve given the greater convexity, while the low parities limit the potential downside,” they added.
Finally, among the Bopreales They chose the 1A series, which currently offers a 20% IRR against AFIP put and “should be more detached from the dynamics of reserves since it can be used to pay taxes,” they concluded.
Source: Ambito
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