A private report indicated that the price of soybeans would be well below the historical average. Therefore, external sales would fall by almost US$500 million compared to what was expected for 2024.
Price projections for the country’s main crops are not encouraging for the remainder of 2024. Although a slight rebound is expected in 2025, values would remain well below the average of recent years, which would generate a drop in Argentine exports and would put pressure on the Central Bank’s (BCRA) reserves.
A report prepared by the Institute for Studies on the Argentine and Latin American Reality (IERAL) estimated that, based on international price forecasts and taking into account normal crop yields, Income from grain exports (and their main industrial derivatives) would total around US$31,591 million next year, almost US$500 million below the value estimated for 2024 (-1.5%).
This is taking place in the face of a worrying outlook for prices. The work showed that in the first week of September, soybean ton futures were at an average of US$37113% below the US$428 which were observed between January and August of the current year and almost 40% behind the US$613 recorded in 2022.
For 2025, studies project a small rise to US$382 per ton, a rebound that tastes like too little. “To put it in perspective, the values that are being handled in the soybean market for next year are located well below the average of the last 25 years (US$480/ton, in constant purchasing power), and you have to go back to 2006 to find a market with such depressed prices.“, IERAL noted,
The “think tank” dependent on the Mediterranean Foundation, founded by Domingo Cavallo in 1977, and which until recently had Carlos Melconian as its leading economist, stressed that the estimates are based on the The United States is having a good harvestand those that other important producers such as Brazil and Argentina could have, which would not be accompanied by an increase of similar magnitude in demand.
In this context, the report expressed concern about the impact this could have on agricultural exports at the local level, although it clarified that The good performance of the energy sector in terms of foreign trade both in 2024 and in future projections could help offset the negative effect mentioned above.
IERAL’s calculations for agricultural production in 2025 contemplate a growth of the planted area of soybeans and a decline in corn prices (due to farmers’ fear of not being able to control the leafhopper pest) and an increase in soybean stocks in the hands of producers.
Source: Ambito
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