The Government hopes to end this year with a The National Public Administration (APN) financial deficit is around $3 trillion, which is equivalent to 0.5% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) estimated for 2024. This is reflected in the numbers presented along with the Draft Budget 2025 which the Chamber of Deputies will have to analyze in the coming days.
But it is worth clarifying that budgets are drawn up for the APN, which is 90% of the National Public Sector (SPN). There is a 10% made up of organizations and companies that do not enter into it since they have their own budgets, such as the Banco Nación, which at the end of the fiscal years report losses or profits to the Treasury. There, if 90% of the State is going to close 2024 with a small financial deficit of half a point, the other remaining 10% will contribute to reverse the result so that it remains balanced or with a surplus.
The Argentine Association of Budget and Public Financial Administration (ASAP) raises in an analysis of the project submitted by the Executive Branch that for this year andTotal planned spending reaches $87.2 trillion and represents 15.3% of GDP, while the Total revenues are estimated at $84.3 trillion (14.8% GDP).
“Consequently, the The financial result of the National Administration for 2024 shows a deficit of $2.9 trillion (0.5% GDP), while the primary result is estimated to be a surplus of $5.8 trillion (1% GDP),” the report notes.
“Considering At this level of spending, the execution of the 2024 Budget at the end of August is close to 66%which is in line with the average for previous years in the same month. Therefore, unless there are changes in the expenditure policy, It is highly likely that the final execution in 2024 will be at a level very close to that contemplated in this project,” says ASAP.
The report adds that, “in line with this diagnosis, and within the framework of the extension of the budget for the current year, the administration of the President Javier Milei immediately produced a drastic reduction in APN spendingwhich is unprecedented in the recent economic history of our country, aimed at eliminating the fiscal deficit and its monetary financing through the Central Bank (BCRA).”
How much will spending and income fall this year?
According to the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (IARAF), “in relation to the income, The year 2024 would end with a real decrease of 6.4% compared to 2023”.
“From a real year-on-year drop of 5.3% in the first seven months of the year, the figure would drop to 7.9% year-on-year in the August-December period,” the report explains.
The study details that “when disaggregating between tax and non-tax revenues, it can be seen that The year 2024 would end with a year-on-year drop of 2.6% in tax revenues (92% of the total) and one of the 35.2% of non-taxpayers.”
In the matter of primary expenditure, The report says that this year “would end with a real year-on-year drop of 26.7%”“Since debt interest would fall by 14.4% year-on-year, total spending would record a real decrease of 25.7%,” explains IARAF.
August data
The Government will inform andIn the next few hours the results of the National Public Sector for last month will be released. “August is coming in balance again which is very commendable Because it is a month in which higher than normal interests were paid because there was a payment to the IMF and in addition the collection of Income and Personal Property Tax was moved to September,” he said a week ago Minister Luis Caputo in a conversation with an official from the Treasury, broadcast via streaming.
Source: Ambito
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