The specialist pointed out that in the first 15 days of September inflation was 2.8% and the month is projected to close between 3.5% and 4%. “If it reaches 4% it will be just scraping by”he assured.
Spotorno stressed the difficulty of breaking through the 4% monthly inflation ratewhich he attributes to monetary factors. According to the economist, The amount of money circulating in the economy has grown by 120% so far this year, exceeding the cumulative inflation rate, which implies that there is still excess money in circulation that has not been absorbed by rising prices.
At this pointthe influence of the exchange rate restriction is key. Spotorno explained that some sectors, especially those linked to the marketing of imported goods or those with international components, continue to manage internal prices based on a “dollar of $2000,” which generates a distortion in the market.
This causes many merchants and producers not to lower their prices, even though the dollar has not reached that value, which contributes to a feeling of persistent inflation.
What will happen to growth in 2025, according to Fausto Spotorno
The specialist pointed out that the recovery in consumption is notable, although deeply “heterogeneous.” In the case of durable goods, such as household appliances and automobiles, he said a significant upturn is observed, in part, thanks to greater access to credit.
However, he noted that the The automotive market is showing a slower recovery, as is the mass consumption of basic productssuch as food and beverages, which has not yet experienced the same improvement.
However, by 2025 a “more marked” growth, driven by the stabilization of monetary variables and greater dynamism in sectors such as energy and agro-industry.
As for the government projections, While the GDP is expected to grow by 5% next year, Spotorno considered the figure optimistic but reasonable. “We are a little below that, but it is possible. It is reasonable if the recovery continues its course,” he said in conversation with Radio Rivadavia.
Source: Ambito
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