The Government wants to unify the review of the last two quarters with the IMF. They add the income from laundering to the reserves. The carry trade advances.
The most of US$10,000 million that until now have entered into laundering -the data is from BBVA Research- are the key to approving the next review of the program that the IMF has with Argentina. They are also, according to the Government, a kind of golden bridge that could boost Minister Luis Caputo to a more fluid dialogue with the IMF.
Confirmed the beginning of negotiations, The Government boasts of having a solution designed for the only deficit it maintains with Kristalina Georgieva: the accumulation of reserves as of September. Something that has already been anticipated is that the Treasury Palace wants the review of the last two quarters to be unified to ensure compliance.
QBut the key is that Minister Luis Caputo is betting, increasingly, on the proceeds of money laundering, an extension now until the end of October. Along these lines, the head of the BCRA, Santiago Bausili, contributes, who already has in hand the dollars deposited in the banks that the entities keep available – and not integrated into the reserves – in case those who joined the laundering wanted to withdraw them at some point. near moment.
In the last few hours, they are excited in the Casa Rosada: dollar deposits have already grown by almost US$13,000 million, but there is another pearl to mention. It is known that from October 1, dollars could begin to be withdrawn from those who had laundered up to US$100,000 in cash. The fact that accelerates spirits in the Government is that only US$154 million has gone so far.
The card that Bausili played for the IMF evaluation
You have to remember something important. Bausili played a few weeks ago when he put into play a rule so that dollars in branches, through laundering, can be computed as legal reserves. That would allow them to be added to the total balance for September, and of course also in October. This would approve the IMF’s reserve goals, the only thing that the organization would dare to demand from the country if necessary.
They think in La Rosada that the approval of the goals with the IMF, the increase in deposits as a result of money laundering and some tailwinds on the international stage as a result of a rate cut by the FED may accompany lowering the country’s risk even further. It matters little, for now, that even the IMF demands measures to mitigate the social impact of the adjustment. Poverty is not a goal that the Fund measures.
Financial summer thanks to carry trade
In the Government they watch absorbed how some financial variables begin to accommodate the wet dreams of those who preannounce exchange rate unification. There is no record, until now, that on Balcarce Street they have come up with the idea of moving forward in this direction..
Rather the opposite could be said: the Government is beginning to see the advantage of managing what has been achieved. It maintains the three variables that it has in place: the liquidation of agriculture through the CCL, the gap at 22.5%. On the other hand, direct interventions and the flow of money laundering. Not only the drop in the MEP dollar, in the area of $1,100-$1,200, but also the parities that rise to counteract the drop in the dollar. Strictly speaking, it is the honeys of the carry trade, without a doubt, one of those responsible for the financial summer.
Source: Ambito
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