In September Argentina had trade deficit with Brazil for the second consecutive month, mainly driven by a strong increase in car imports. Thus, The accumulated balance in 2024 with the main trading partner reversed and became negative.
As reported in a report by the consulting firm Abecebduring the ninth month of the year imports from the neighboring country they added some US$1,454 million. This was the first year-on-year increase since July of last year, exceeding by one 25.4% to purchases that had been made in September 2023.
Particularly highlighted was the dynamics of imports of vehicles for passenger transportation, which jumped 412% year-on-year.. Thus, they began to represent almost 20% of total purchases, when a year ago they accounted for only 5%.
The acquisitions of vehicles for the transport of goods and road vehicleswhich represented another 8% of aggregate imports. On the contrary, a contraction was verified in the amounts of auto parts.
Another item that boosted imports was energeticshowing a growth of 27.5% and explaining 4.6% of the total. Likewise, it is worth highlighting the elimination of imports of soywhich were no longer necessary this year given the overcoming of the drought.
Despite the increase in purchases from Brazil, Abeceb stressed the low basis of comparison since in the last months of 2023 the previous government placed strong obstacles on foreign trade to take care of the reserves, in an electoral context. In addition, the consulting firm clarified that the accumulated January-September still remains 28.4% below the values recorded in 2023 for the same period.
Exports also grew
On the side of the exports there was a year-on-year increase in 29.2% to achieve the US$1,272 million. Sales of vehicles for transporting goods presented the greatest contribution, increasing by 42.% and concentrate about a quarter of the total shipments to the main economy of the region.
The positive variations in exports of cars for the transportation of passengers, auto parts and wheat. Contrary to the general trend, lower sales of oil.
In the accumulated of the year, external sales have shown an increase of 7.3% annually compared to January-September 2023. With the exports and imports data for September, The accumulated amount now showed a deficit of US$56 million.
What is expected for bilateral trade with Brazil in the last quarter of 2024
For the fourth quarter, Abeceb expects a moderate rebound in imports hand in hand with the reduction of the PAIS tax, the recovery of economic activity, and the recent reductions in tariffs on imports of a series of finished industrial products and productive inputs.
In parallel, the consultant highlighted the boost that the increase in Brazilian GDP growth projections can give to Argentine exportsdue to its better prospects for consumption and investment.
“Inflation expectations are higher after a prolonged disinflation process, such that the Central Bank of Brazil increased the reference rate to 10.75% in October and could increase it again in the rest of the fourth quarter. Added to the lower rates global benchmarks, this would strengthen the Brazilian real, and The real appreciation of the Brazilian currency will be a relief for the Argentine bilateral and multilateral real exchange rate“he added.
Source: Ambito
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