The financial dollars seem to find no floor (beyond the recent rebound of the blue)while the projections of the inflation They continue on the path proposed by the Government. In that framework, the country risk It is on its way to breaking 1,000 basis points, levels not seen since 2019.
That is why it is important to reveal What should be invested in in this context, furthermore, taking into account the different risk profiles.
It should be noted that, since the beginning of money laundering, The Argentine financial market registered a significant inflow of dollars, which led the MEP dollar to hit its lowest levels since May. Thus, it is currently above $1,140, a level close to an eventual convergence with the official dollar, which the Government seeks at some point, around $1,100.
On the other hand, last week the inflation data for September was released, which was in line with what the market expected, standing at 3.5%, and The path of deceleration could continue with the October figure, closer to 3%. Thus, the Lecaps peso rates remain positive in real terms.
“Carry trade”, the star strategy in August and September: is it still in October?
In September, parallel dollars closed lower for the third consecutive month. Thus, various reports maintained that the one who bet on the financial bicycle (make rate in pesos and then dollarize) In the last three months it obtained a profit of more than 30% in dollars. As for what is happening and may eventually happen in October, they assert that The window would still be open, but it is recommended only for profiles with an appetite for risk.
“If the disinflation trend continues, we could see a future reduction in interest rates, which would further strengthen this ‘carry trade’ strategy. In this way, we can think that the MEP dollar will remain in the current price range, which promotes the strategy of continuing in fixed rate instruments in pesos to revalue and maximize profits“he told this medium, Guido NigraFinancial Advisor and Sales Trader Private Wealth at Balanz.
For its part, Mateo ReschiniHead of research Inviuhighlighted: “With this environment of money laundering, which left a large stock of local dollars, the exchange rate calm would continue, although I would not be surprised if we have some type of rebound, but I do not see it exceeding $1,250. I think it’s good enough to still maintain certain ‘carry’ positions, but for more conservative profiles it would be time, at least, to close parts“.
Conservative profiles: what to invest in in October
Analysts agree that for investors with conservative profiles, Common Investment Funds (FCI) in pesos, which invest in short-term instruments such as bonds or Treasury Bills, offer an excellent alternative.
“These funds provide immediate liquidity and better returns compared to interest-bearing accounts. At Balanz, we have the FCI Performance II (Lecaps)which allows T+0 operations, ideal to complement a dollarized fund and begin to cover part of the portfolio given the current price of the MEP dollar. We also recommend the FCI Balanz Fixed Income in dollars, which invests in corporate and sovereign bonds,” he told Nigra, to Ámbito.
For its part, Piedad OrtizChief Economist of Wise Capitalstated: “In our company, we have immediate rescue funds that offer a higher return than the fixed term and 24-hour term funds that beat the dollar, where, for example, the Adcap Balanced Fund X (Wise Capital Saving) The redemption rate on the day has had variations in the last 90 days of 10.6% higher than the fixed term, whose nominal increase was 9.6%. And achieving an IRR of 60.55% annually. In the case of the challenge of beating the dollar, the Adcap Wise Capital Multistrategy Fundcomes with an incredible rise in the last 12 months of 139.8% against the MEP dollar, which has only risen 32.77%.”
Aggressive profiles: what to invest in this month
As for the sovereign bonds, for Ortiz constitute an important investment point for the end of the year. “Investments in global bonds, such as GD35, GD38 and GD41, We see them well, especially accompanied by the reduction in country risk. We also see value in moving from AL to GD bonds (especially in terms of legislation). As for equities, our favorites are the energy sector stocks, there we have YPF, PAMP, TGS, EDN and METR”he explained.
For more aggressive profiles, Specialists also maintain that they could maintain the “carry trade” strategy with Lecaps. “The sovereign bond curve, which is close to historical highs due to the macroeconomic reforms implemented in the current administration, suggests that there is still room for a reduction in country risk, which could generate a 30% potential profit in dollars if it begins to converge in similar areas of the region’s peers”Nigra closed.
Source: Ambito
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