Rains in the central area: the lifeguard that the countryside was waiting for the 2024/25 agricultural campaign arrived

The rains that have been recorded since yesterday in the productive areas play a crucial role in agricultural expectations for the new thick campaign. After months of drought and adverse conditions, the water brought relief and generated a radical change in the projections for key crops such as corn, soybeans and wheat.

A recent report from the Rosario Stock Exchange highlighted that the rainfall records allowed the recovery of the soils in the core region and reversed – at least partially – the damage caused by the drought. Anyway, better late than never.

The rain came and everything changed

The month of October brought with it precipitation that have already exceeded expectations, particularly in the core region, the most relevant agricultural area of ​​the country. According to the Rosario Stock Exchange, The rains exceeded 90 mm in towns such as María Teresa, Rufino and Canalswhich significantly improved the soil situation. Cristian Russo, head of Agricultural Estimates at the Rosario Stock Exchange, explained that until now “We were losing 3 to 0 against the drought, but with the recent rains, we are winning 4 to 3.” This turn is essential for crops in the thick season, such as soybeans and corn, which depend on water availability in this key stage.

Meanwhile, the report of Climate Outlook that publishes the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange has just confirmed that rainfall is concentrated in some key areas, such as the north of the Pampas Regionthe east of Mesopotamia and parts of NOA, with rains that exceed 50 mm. Other areas, such as the west of the Pampas Region and the Southern Cordilleracontinue to have very low rainfall records, which poses additional challenges for producers who still face significant water deficits.

In the case of soybeans, the rains arrived at the right time to begin planting with more favorable conditions. Some lots have already begun implementation tasks and the improvement in water reserves in the soil drives the sowing rate, especially in the core region.

Corn, for its part, was also favored by the rains although producers face the risk that the critical crop period coincides with the month of Januarywhen high temperatures and possible lack of water could cause difficulties. For this reason, the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange warned about the need to monitor climate behavior in the coming months.

Impact of rains on crops

The impact of these rains is not only limited to soybeans and corn. Wheat, which was under severe pressure due to the drought, also benefited from rainfallalthough in some cases the damage is already irreversible.

According to the report of the Strategic Guide for Agriculture (GEA) of the Rosario Stock Exchangeit was estimated that around 650,000 hectares wheat crops were in fair or poor condition before the rains. After the rainfall, that figure is reduced to 325,000 hectaresindicating that, although the optimal potential will not be reached, the rains stabilize the expected performance.

On the other hand, the report of the Rosario Stock Exchange He stressed that the recent rains were essential not only for wheat, but also for the soybeans and cornwhose yields depend largely on water availability in this initial stage. The current soil conditions allow us to project an improvement in production, provided that the rains continue steadily in the coming weeks.

And how is everything going? Climate outlook for the coming months

The climate will continue to play a decisive role in the development of the agricultural campaign. The aforementioned report prepared by the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange He explained that rainfall will continue unevenly in the different productive areas of the country. Moderate to heavy rains are expected in areas of the NOA, Mesopotamia and the east of the Pampas Regionwhile western regions of the Pampas Region and the Southern Cordillera They will receive little rainfall, less than 10 mm.

This variability in the distribution of rainfall represents a challenge for producers, who are already attentive to climate projections to adjust their planting and crop management plans. As we warned in Scope last week, the productive explosion will be seen in the coming days, because the rains and the sowers arrived -like the producers- they seem eager to enter the lots.