The reading that several operators are making at this time is that the reformist agenda of the union center on a sensitive issue such as pensions, was installed in the political system, specifically in the Frente Amplio (FA).
In that sense, the controversy that arose hours before the electoral ban began regarding the future of the Pension Savings Fund Administrators (AFAP) It did not go unnoticed. The FA presidential candidate, Yamandu Orsisaid that the operations carried out by the AFAP should be reviewed because some could be carried out by the State. That was hours after his campaign manager, Sen. Alejandro Sanchezwill clarify his statements about nationalizing them. “It was ironic,” he said.
The PIT-CNT initiative proposes lowering the retirement age from 65 to 60 years, equating the minimum retirement with the minimum wage and eliminating the AFAP, transferring the 23 billion dollars they manage to the Social Security Bank (BPS).
Its detractors, among whom are all the presidential candidates in contention this Sunday and hundreds of economists, warned, among numerous adverse effects, about the increase in fiscal deficitthe increase in taxes to finance it, the rise of the country risk and the exchange rate and the loss of investment grade.
It is clear that the scenario of a rejection of the plebiscite distances the market from an unprecedented crisis situation, only comparable to that of 2002. But its rejection does not return the waters to a calm situation either.
They consider that the PIT-CNT triumphed in raising the issue of the AFAP and anticipate that this claim will be taken, in the short term and with a lot of pressure, to an eventual government of the Frente Amplio, historically with good relations with the unions.
“The AFAP’s days are numbered beyond Sunday’s result and regardless of who it may be,” he stated. Marcelo Abdalathe president of the union confederation at the closing of the campaign for the plebiscite, setting off more alarms.
The commissions charged by AFAPs and profitability levels could be two issues to review, they understand. Others, as noted JP Morgan In a document to their clients, they consider that the next discussion on social security will go through another of the points promoted in the plebiscite: that of raising minimum retirements and pensions.
The almost certainty that the project PIT-CNT will not succeed at the polls – it requires 50% plus one of the votes – was reflected in several financial indicators in the two weeks prior to this Sunday’s elections.
He dollar It moved with some stability in the center of the range of 41 pesos, far from the peak of 42.25 pesos that it reached in mid-September; and the country risk stabilized below 90 basis points, falling 8.33% in the last 30 days. However, concern about the future of the coming months persists and political signals will be key in the coming weeks.
Source: Ambito
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