He global dollar fell on Wednesday, after stronger-than-expected US data and the release of the US budget. United Kingdom triggered volatile operations in a market who expects employment data at the end of this week and elections Americans of the next.
He dollar index – which measures the performance of the greenback in relation to a basket of six other internationally relevant currencies – fell 0.17% to 104.06, despite having risen to 104.43 at the beginning of the session.
In addition, on Tuesday it had climbed to 104.63, its highest level since July 30, driven partly by recent strong US data and partly by investors’ growing expectations of a victory for the former Republican president. donald trumpaccording to Reuters.
He euro rose 0.36% to $1.0857, while the dollar was stable at 153.42 yen, while the pound sterling, which fell as much as 0.6% after British finance minister Rachel Reeves presented the Labor government’s first budget, was down 0.34% at $1.2971.
“Aside from the British pound, I think today is a position adjustment ahead of Friday’s data,” he said. Marc Chandler Chief Market Strategist at Bannockburn Global Forex. “The two big uncertainties are Friday’s US employment data and the US election.”
Expectation for data and elections in the United States
At the economic level, the growth of private payrolls USA increased in October, outweighing fears of temporary disruptions caused by hurricanes and strikes, according to the National Employment Report of ADP.
Meanwhile, separate data showed the U.S. economy grew at an annualized rate of 2.8% in the third quarter, slightly below the 3% expected by economists.
Thus, they provided little clarity on the outlook for the rates of the Federal Reserve (Fed), which allowed the dollar to fall along with the yields of the Treasury bonds.
However, economic readings have recently pointed to a resilient labor market and economy, prompting traders to reduce their bets on job cuts. rates.
Uto Shinohara, Senior investment strategist at Mesirow Currency Management in Chicago, said markets have priced in a 25 basis point cut for the Fed’s November meeting, but another cut in December remains a toss-up.
“With a greater focus on employment data, a strong nonfarm payrolls data would give the Fed grounds to pause in December,” Shinohara said, warning: “The election outcome may have a major consequence on rates during the next presidential term, the effect in the short term will depend on employment and growth.
Both the dollar and US bond yields have also been boosted in recent days by growing speculation in the markets and on some betting platforms about a victory in the November 5 presidential election for the Republican candidate donald trump -whose tariff and immigration policies are seen as inflationary- and who faces the Democrat Kamala Harris.
Source: Ambito
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