In a week the US will have a new president and there is no need to clarify what this will mean for Americans and the world. Fortune tellers, octopuses, little coins, whirligigs, there are countless instruments that are used to predict who will occupy the White House as of next January 20.
The two main social mechanisms to try to see if we will have – for the first time – a “Mrs. President” or a “Mr. President”are the surveys and the results of the betting houses. Starting today and twice a day, Ámbito.com will publish the main results – without adding any opinion – so that readers are aware of the most probable results and can thus form their decisions with the best information.
The surveys
The political failure of individual pollsters is proverbial; However, in the aggregate the surveys have been much more accurate. This does not mean that survey aggregators are free of bias (via the weight they give to different results and consultants).
In 2002, Real Clear Politics became the first North American poll aggregator, being recognized based on its results for the 2004 election, and in 2008 it was followed by FiveThirtyEight, which since last year has been – through abcNews – under the control of “ The Walt Disney Co.”
Based on its historical predictions, we could say that RCP has presented a bias towards the center right (Republicans) and 5.38 towards the center left (Democrats).
One point to keep in mind is that in the US there is no “election ban”, so we will continue to provide this information until the moment of the elections.
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The Bets
Given the failure of the pollsters, at the beginning of the century the academic world began to see how the “wisdom of the masses”, collected by betting houses, provided better results than traditional pollsters, especially when the elections were very close. Below, the latest figures from the betting houses according to RCP.
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Garifco bets 31 10 T.JPG
What happened during the day
Since the morning comment, the interest in betting in favor of Kamala Harris has accelerated, and from a 36% chance of winning the presidency they have now gone to 37.5%. Meanwhile, optimism for Donald Trump decreased somewhat more, going from 62.8% to 61.1%.
On the polling front, those from RCP increased the estimate in favor of the Republican a tenth of a point to 48.5% (they kept the Democrat unchanged at 48%) while those from “5.38” kept him unchanged at 46.7 %, reducing hers by a tenth to 48%.
See you tomorrow
Source: Ambito
I am Pierce Boyd, a driven and ambitious professional working in the news industry. I have been writing for 24 Hours Worlds for over five years, specializing in sports section coverage. During my tenure at the publication, I have built an impressive portfolio of articles that has earned me a reputation as an experienced journalist and content creator.
