The Government assures that it will not modify its export settlement or withholding policy during 2025. This is what officials from the economic team made known to businessmen in the sector. in various conversations they held this week. This implies that the “blend” dollar will continue to be in force, which allocates 20% of the settlement to financial dollars and that soybeans will continue to pay 33% in export duties. A decline in the crawling peg appears to maintain the carry trade. Margins are limited, confidence deteriorates and investment appetite in the sector declines.
According to a study by the Austral University, 65% of producers are not going to invest in fixed assets during the next twelve monthswhich represents a deterioration in investment appetite of 5% compared to the last survey carried out by the same institution.
According to the report from the Center for Agribusiness and Food, the main factors for the deterioration of confidence and investment appetite are the low profitability expected for the new 2024/2025 campaign and the certainty that there will not be a drop in withholdings in the short term.
Withholdings and dollar blend
On this last point, the perception collected by those surveyed seems well oriented. Sources from the sector revealed to Ámbito that in recent weeks they held conversations with representatives of the economic team and confirmed that, despite the increase in revenue, there will not be a drop in export duties, at least during 2025.
Bad news for producers who face a year with a sharp drop in margins due to the combination of lower international prices, higher costs and exchange rate appreciation. In that same round trip, The representatives of the economic team told them that, although the compression of the gap continues, the blend dollar scheme will continue to be in force. which directs 20% of the settlement to financial dollars.
Something that, ultimately, guarantees producers a more competitive export exchange rate in case financial dollars overheat in the election year. The Government does not want to introduce changes in this matter because it understands that it was essential to sustain exchange peace during this year.
Export carry continues
This scenario suggests that exchange rate unification is not expected, at least until the electoral process is completed. What the economic team does have between its eyebrows is a drop in the pace of the crawling peg. It was anticipated by the economist most in tune with the Casa Rosada, Ricardo Arriazu, and Javier Milei himself hinted at it.
“In case any signal was missing, the Central Bank lowered the monetary policy rate on Friday. In order for the carry trade of exporters to be maintained, which is calculated against the official dollar, it is necessary that the pace of devaluation slow down,” a market operator told Ámbito, who estimated that in the coming months, crawling peg could drop from 2% to 1.5%.
With rates at 3.3%, this would put the spread back to 1.8% and would maintain the appetite for the export carry trade, which the Central Bank is savoring at this time. According to data from the Chamber of the Oil Industry and the Cereal Exporters Center (Ciara-CEC), the liquidation of foreign currency by exporters of grains and derivatives reached US$2,533 million and had the best October since 2002. year in which records began.
Source: Ambito
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