He dollar held steady and stocks fell on Monday, as investors acted cautiously ahead of a presidential election in USA of great consequence for the global economy, and in which a cut in the interest rates of the Federal Reserve later in the week.
In the US presidential race, the Democratic candidate Kamala Harris and the Republican candidate donald trump They remain virtually tied in opinion polls ahead of Tuesday’s vote, so it may not be clear who won in the days after voting ends.
The policies of trump on immigration, tax cuts and tariffs can put upward pressure on inflation, bond yields and the dollar, analysts believe, while Harris is seen as the continuation candidate.
He dollar indexwhich measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, was also unchanged at 103.91. The dollar fell against a number of European and Asian currencies, losing 0.38% against the euro to $1.087, and falling 0.5% against the Japanese yen to 152.17.
MSCI indicator of global stocks remained stable, in Wall Streetthe S&P 500 index lost 0.28%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.6% and the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.3%.
“Tomorrow will determine the direction of the global economy and geopolitics over the next four years,” Deutsche Bank analysts wrote. They warned that “there remains a large degree of uncertainty surrounding the outcome, including the very close race for the House (of Representatives)and when we will know.”
Additionally, U.S. government bonds rose and yields treasury bonds 10-year bonds fell 5.6 basis points to 4.30%. He MSCI index broader range of actions Asia-Pacific Outside Japan, it rose 0.6%, recovering from its fall to a five-week low on Friday.
Focus on the Fed
The week will also offer investors global monetary policy catalysts. The rate decision that will be followed most closely is that of the Federal Reserve, and decisions are also expected from the Bank of England (BoE)he Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA), he Riksbank and the Norges Bank.
Markets are leaning toward a 25 basis point Fed rate cut. “Based on current data, we see no reason for (the FOMC) to rush to cut rates,” ANZ analysts said. “The elections and uncertainty about the future fiscal path also support the case for caution in recalibrating monetary policy,” they added.
This week’s meeting of the powerful’s standing committee National People’s Congress (APN) of China It is also on the radar of investors. The National People’s Assembly will meet Nov. 4-8 and will focus on additional details of a series of recently announced stimulus measures. Chinese blue-chip stocks gained 1.4%, with the Shanghai Composite Index which rose 1.2%.
Reuters reported that at the NPC meeting China is considering approving the issuance of more than 10 trillion yuan ($1.4 trillion) in additional debt in the coming years to revive its fragile economy, a fiscal package that is expected to be further strengthened if Trump wins the election.
It is also expected that the bank of england, which meets on Thursday, cut rates by 25 basis points. His decision has been complicated by the massive sell-off in bonds of the State following last week’s Labor government budget. Sterling rose 0.5% to $1.297, helped by the weakening dollar. Last week it fell 0.3%.
Source: Ambito
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