next year Retirees who receive the minimum will not have an increase in their pocket assets due to the freezing of the $70,000 bonus, warned a report from the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis (IARAF).
The report says that “if inflation continued to decline in 2025, reaching 2% monthly at the end of the year and totaling end-to-end inflation of 48%, “The real annual assets would have an improvement of 15% compared to this year 2024”.
But clarify that, “If the Government keeps the value of the bonus fixed at $70,000 throughout the year 2025, the real annual income of people who earn the minimum would be practically the same as in 2024.”
“Of both behaviors “There is a higher real expense during the first six months of the year and a lower real expense during the second half of 2025,” points out the work.
In this regard, the report says that “spending in the first semester could be 12.5% real year-on-year higher than that of the first semester of 2024 and that of the second semester practically the same.”
“If an analysis of the accumulated monthly interannual variation is carried out, it can be seen that the largest real increase could be recorded in the first two months. From there, a decline would be generated, with the expected annual growth being approximately 5.7%,” says the IARAF.
What happened to retirements this year
The IARAF indicates that “during this year 2024, the “The fall in the purchasing power of pensions was the origin of the real fall in public spending.”
“Throughout the year, due to changes made to salaries, the intensity of the real year-on-year drop in retirement spending decreased,” the report explains.
In that sense, it is detailed that “the largest real interannual falls “They occurred during the first five months of the year” since “from a real year-on-year drop of 33% in the month of January it went to a real year-on-year drop of 13% in October.”
The private study maintains that it is necessary Keep in mind that this year the assets were updated based on the inflation of the previous two months and that the bonus remains fixed.
The study considers that, although it is complex to make a projection, it is possible to affirm that perhaps the month of November 2024, Pension spending has already registered a real year-on-year increase, perhaps minimal.
On the other hand, he maintains that “in December there would be a greater real interannual increase” and that therefore “it is possible that spending on retirements will have a real interannual increase of around 0.6% in November and 2.9% in December.”
“In short, the last two months would end with a real year-on-year increase, after several months of permanent falls,” the work says.
Retirements: the minimum ones continue to lose
The minimum salaries without bonuses that retirees will receive in November will have almost tied the inflation rate of one year up to this point.
It is estimated that the 252,782.40 that they will receive for their October settlement are 2% below what they received in the same month of 2023. But if the effect of the frozen bonus is added, on the total assets, they will have lost 17.5%.
Source: Ambito
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