According to the data of the Build Index (IC)the sale of products for the construction registered a decrease of 3.23% monthly seasonally adjustedmaintaining a 24.8% below of the level of November 2023. The calculation system measures the evolution of the volumes sold to the private sector of said inputs.
From IC, they detailed: “In recent months, sales stopped recovering, the market is looking for its new level. With the resurgence of mortgage credit, we hope that there will be a gradual recovery in the level of activity starting next year.”
Furthermore, the accumulated from January-November this year also remained very low compared to the same period of the previous year, with a record of 28.5%.
The index measures the evolution of the volumes sold to the private sector of the following construction products manufactured by the leading companies that make up the Construya Group: ceramic bricks, Portland cement, lime, long steel, aluminum carpentry, adhesives and pastes, paints waterproofing, sanitary, boilers and home systems and heating plants, taps and systems for water and gas conduction, floors, ceramic coatings and electrical and electronic materials.
Construction suffered its worst monthly decline since March in October and has dropped almost 30% so far this year
Construction suffered a 4% monthly decline in the seasonally adjusted series during October, the worst record since March, while so far this year it has accumulated a collapse of 29% annually, as reported by the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INDEC). In the interannual variation, in addition, it gave 24.5%.
Although, the trend-cycle series index registers a positive variation of 2.2% compared to the previous month.
As a complement to construction data, INDEC publishes information on the registered jobs in private activity. In September 2024, a drop in 15.9% compared to the same month of the previous year, while in the accumulated January-September 2024, the drop was 17.6% compared to the same period of the previous year.
It should be noted that the information refers to jobs on which contributions are made to the pension system.
What is expected for November?
“A change in expectations is beginning to be noticed in the construction sector,” highlights the consulting firm LCG. This is because, among companies that carry out private works, the participation of actors who expect a recovery in the next 3 months increased, 20.8% compared to 16.5% last month. Something similar happened with those that carry out public works, 19% are more optimistic compared to 14.7% last month.
For November, the Construct index anticipates a seasonally adjusted monthly fall of 3.2% and AFCP sustained year-on-year falls in AFCP Cement Shipments (-14.5%). And in the case of industry, automotive production would have suffered 5.1% y/y according to ADEFA.
In that sense, LCG highlighted that “even though sectoral data remains to be known, it is clear that the recovery of both industry and construction is still not strong and is subject to fluctuations.”
“However, we maintain our projection of a cumulative fall in the 12 months of 9% for the industry in 2024 and 27% for construction activity. The recovery that could occur in both sectors in the last two months of the year will leave statistical drag by 2025, but it will be lower,” they concluded.
Source: Ambito
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