Good news for the BCRA: estimates for the wheat harvest improve and will exceed 19 million tons

Good news for the BCRA: estimates for the wheat harvest improve and will exceed 19 million tons

December 12, 2024 – 10:30

The Rosario Stock Exchange raised estimates of the wheat harvest, which is expected for the month of January. It could be the third most productive campaign in the last 15 cycles.

Good news for Central Bank reserves. The wheat harvest 2024/25 would be 19.3 million tons, from the 18.8 million previously estimated, thanks to yields higher than the expected for favorable weather in Novembersaid Wednesday the Rosario Stock Exchange (BCR) in your monthly grain report.

“It is being confirmed that the cool weather and significant rains in November have been key to expecting an improvement in the province of Buenos Aires,” the most important wheat-producing province in Argentina, the Rosario Stock Exchange said. With this new adjustment, the current wheat campaign is positioned as the third most productive in the last 15 cycles. It is behind the record reached in the season 2021/22with 23 million tonsand of the 19.5 million tons registered in the campaign 2019/20.

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Argentine producers have already harvested 58% of the area planted with wheat

Argentine producers have already harvested 58% of the area planted with wheat

Argentine producers They have already collected 58% of the area planted with wheatwhose harvest ends in January, according to the BCR. Regarding soybeans and corn 2024/25, The Stock Exchange said that the rainfall in recent weeks also left good conditions for both cropswhich are in their planting period. The Rosario Stock Exchange said that producers have planted 62% of the expected area for soybeans and 64% of the expected area for corn. It estimates soybean production of between 53 and 53.5 million tons, and corn production of between 50 and 51 million tons.

With this new setting, The current wheat campaign is positioned as the third most productive in the last 15 cycles. It is behind the record reached in the 2021/22 season, with 23 million tons, and the 19.5 million tons registered in the 2019/20 campaign.

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The current wheat campaign is positioned as the third most productive in the last 15 cycles.

The current wheat campaign is positioned as the third most productive in the last 15 cycles.

Rapid progress in corn planting

Argentine corn production will also give good news since it is expected to reach 48.2 million tons in the 2024/2025 campaign, a 1% above last estimate, thanks to better soil moisture and rapid planting progress, an LSEG report said on Wednesday.

“Despite regional differences in soil moisture, overall conditions in most of the major Pampa growing regions have greatly improved compared to the beginning of the season, thanks to favorable November weather patterns, more favorable than initially anticipated,” the report highlighted.

The report cites data from the Ministry of Agriculture on the progress of planting, which indicates that has been completed so far at 60% nationwide, ahead of last year’s 54% and the five-year average of 53%. Despite rapid progress in planting and rainfall that improved soil moisture levels, LSEG’s long-term yield prospects “remain quite bleak.”

“Unfavorable heat and drought conditions are expected for the months of December to February, during the period of maximum crop growth.”said LSEG. In the last campaign, the corn harvest reached 50 million tons.

Source: Ambito

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